Official forecasts from the National Weather Service peg Chicago’s August 30 high near 80 °F amid widespread cloud cover, scattered showers, and thunderstorms driven by a southwest flow and modest instability. Ensemble guidance and local observations show modest warming potential if convective activity remains isolated and breaks occur, supporting the market’s tight clustering between the 82–83 °F and 84–85 °F bins. Persistent low-level moisture and gusty winds favor suppressed maxima unless afternoon clearing strengthens insolation. Historical climatology places the date’s average high at 81 °F, so trader positioning largely reflects the balance between today’s observed cloud trends and any late-day model shifts that could allow brief warming above 83 °F before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Chicago on August 30?
Highest temperature in Chicago on August 30?
82-83°F 40%
84-85°F 37%
80-81°F 13%
86-87°F 8%
$25,356 Vol.
$25,356 Vol.
Aug 30, 2026
77°F or below
1%
78-79°F
4%
80-81°F
13%
82-83°F
40%
84-85°F
37%
86-87°F
8%
88-89°F
3%
90-91°F
1%
92-93°F
<1%
94-95°F
<1%
96°F or higher
<1%
82-83°F 40%
84-85°F 37%
80-81°F 13%
86-87°F 8%
$25,356 Vol.
$25,356 Vol.
Aug 30, 2026
77°F or below
$3,343 Vol.
1%
78-79°F
$1,366 Vol.
4%
80-81°F
$2,394 Vol.
13%
82-83°F
$3,664 Vol.
40%
84-85°F
$3,705 Vol.
37%
86-87°F
$5,288 Vol.
8%
88-89°F
$3,015 Vol.
3%
90-91°F
$1,768 Vol.
1%
92-93°F
$132 Vol.
<1%
94-95°F
$328 Vol.
<1%
96°F or higher
$353 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official forecasts from the National Weather Service peg Chicago’s August 30 high near 80 °F amid widespread cloud cover, scattered showers, and thunderstorms driven by a southwest flow and modest instability. Ensemble guidance and local observations show modest warming potential if convective activity remains isolated and breaks occur, supporting the market’s tight clustering between the 82–83 °F and 84–85 °F bins. Persistent low-level moisture and gusty winds favor suppressed maxima unless afternoon clearing strengthens insolation. Historical climatology places the date’s average high at 81 °F, so trader positioning largely reflects the balance between today’s observed cloud trends and any late-day model shifts that could allow brief warming above 83 °F before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 28, 2026, 10:56 AM ET
Volume
$25,356End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 10:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kordResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official forecasts from the National Weather Service peg Chicago’s August 30 high near 80 °F amid widespread cloud cover, scattered showers, and thunderstorms driven by a southwest flow and modest instability. Ensemble guidance and local observations show modest warming potential if convective activity remains isolated and breaks occur, supporting the market’s tight clustering between the 82–83 °F and 84–85 °F bins. Persistent low-level moisture and gusty winds favor suppressed maxima unless afternoon clearing strengthens insolation. Historical climatology places the date’s average high at 81 °F, so trader positioning largely reflects the balance between today’s observed cloud trends and any late-day model shifts that could allow brief warming above 83 °F before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$25,356End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 10:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kordResolver
0x69c47De9D...Official forecasts from the National Weather Service peg Chicago’s August 30 high near 80 °F amid widespread cloud cover, scattered showers, and thunderstorms driven by a southwest flow and modest instability. Ensemble guidance and local observations show modest warming potential if convective activity remains isolated and breaks occur, supporting the market’s tight clustering between the 82–83 °F and 84–85 °F bins. Persistent low-level moisture and gusty winds favor suppressed maxima unless afternoon clearing strengthens insolation. Historical climatology places the date’s average high at 81 °F, so trader positioning largely reflects the balance between today’s observed cloud trends and any late-day model shifts that could allow brief warming above 83 °F before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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