Persistent warm, humid air mass with southerly flow and extensive cloud cover is keeping overnight radiative cooling minimal across Chicago, positioning the 68-69°F range as the dominant market outcome. National Weather Service and local forecasts indicate an official low near 72°F tonight under mostly cloudy skies with isolated showers and south winds of 5-10 mph, consistent with the current warm pattern that has suppressed typical late-August minima. Trader consensus at 85.5% implied probability for 68-69°F reflects uncertainty around exact station readings amid variable dew points near 67-70°F and potential for slight localized dips, while probabilities drop sharply below 64°F or above 70°F given the lack of any cold front or clear-sky conditions. Upcoming official NWS climatological reports will resolve the market based on verified minimum observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Chicago on August 30?
Lowest temperature in Chicago on August 30?
68-69°F 91%
64-65°F 49%
66-67°F 41%
63°F or below 6%
$1,136 Vol.
$1,136 Vol.
Aug 30, 2026
63°F or below
6%
64-65°F
49%
66-67°F
41%
68-69°F
79%
70-71°F
<1%
72-73°F
<1%
74-75°F
<1%
76-77°F
<1%
78-79°F
<1%
80-81°F
<1%
82°F or higher
<1%
68-69°F 91%
64-65°F 49%
66-67°F 41%
63°F or below 6%
$1,136 Vol.
$1,136 Vol.
Aug 30, 2026
63°F or below
$124 Vol.
6%
64-65°F
$57 Vol.
49%
66-67°F
$0 Vol.
41%
68-69°F
$55 Vol.
79%
70-71°F
$112 Vol.
<1%
72-73°F
$205 Vol.
<1%
74-75°F
$192 Vol.
<1%
76-77°F
$214 Vol.
<1%
78-79°F
$74 Vol.
<1%
80-81°F
$55 Vol.
<1%
82°F or higher
$57 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent warm, humid air mass with southerly flow and extensive cloud cover is keeping overnight radiative cooling minimal across Chicago, positioning the 68-69°F range as the dominant market outcome. National Weather Service and local forecasts indicate an official low near 72°F tonight under mostly cloudy skies with isolated showers and south winds of 5-10 mph, consistent with the current warm pattern that has suppressed typical late-August minima. Trader consensus at 85.5% implied probability for 68-69°F reflects uncertainty around exact station readings amid variable dew points near 67-70°F and potential for slight localized dips, while probabilities drop sharply below 64°F or above 70°F given the lack of any cold front or clear-sky conditions. Upcoming official NWS climatological reports will resolve the market based on verified minimum observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 28, 2026, 10:29 AM ET
Volume
$1,136End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 10:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kordResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent warm, humid air mass with southerly flow and extensive cloud cover is keeping overnight radiative cooling minimal across Chicago, positioning the 68-69°F range as the dominant market outcome. National Weather Service and local forecasts indicate an official low near 72°F tonight under mostly cloudy skies with isolated showers and south winds of 5-10 mph, consistent with the current warm pattern that has suppressed typical late-August minima. Trader consensus at 85.5% implied probability for 68-69°F reflects uncertainty around exact station readings amid variable dew points near 67-70°F and potential for slight localized dips, while probabilities drop sharply below 64°F or above 70°F given the lack of any cold front or clear-sky conditions. Upcoming official NWS climatological reports will resolve the market based on verified minimum observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,136End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 10:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kordResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent warm, humid air mass with southerly flow and extensive cloud cover is keeping overnight radiative cooling minimal across Chicago, positioning the 68-69°F range as the dominant market outcome. National Weather Service and local forecasts indicate an official low near 72°F tonight under mostly cloudy skies with isolated showers and south winds of 5-10 mph, consistent with the current warm pattern that has suppressed typical late-August minima. Trader consensus at 85.5% implied probability for 68-69°F reflects uncertainty around exact station readings amid variable dew points near 67-70°F and potential for slight localized dips, while probabilities drop sharply below 64°F or above 70°F given the lack of any cold front or clear-sky conditions. Upcoming official NWS climatological reports will resolve the market based on verified minimum observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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