Recent August 2026 CPI data, with headline inflation at +3.4% year-over-year and core at +2.4%, alongside a stable 4.1% unemployment rate and +162,000 payroll gains, have reinforced expectations for tighter monetary policy. These figures, amid robust consumer spending and supply-side pressures, position a 25 basis point federal funds rate increase as the leading December FOMC outcome at 61% implied probability. Market-implied odds reflect trader consensus on persistent price pressures outweighing labor market resilience, though a hold remains plausible at 35.5% if incoming data moderates. The September 16 dot plot and October employment release will provide key updates ahead of the December 8-9 meeting.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated25 bps increase 61%
No change 36%
25 bps decrease 3.4%
50+ bps increase 1.5%
$821,393 Vol.
$821,393 Vol.
Dec 9, 2026
50+ bps decrease
1%
25 bps decrease
3%
No change
36%
25 bps increase
61%
50+ bps increase
2%
25 bps increase 61%
No change 36%
25 bps decrease 3.4%
50+ bps increase 1.5%
$821,393 Vol.
$821,393 Vol.
Dec 9, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$131,229 Vol.
1%
25 bps decrease
$188,499 Vol.
3%
No change
$162,968 Vol.
36%
25 bps increase
$214,365 Vol.
61%
50+ bps increase
$124,333 Vol.
2%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent August 2026 CPI data, with headline inflation at +3.4% year-over-year and core at +2.4%, alongside a stable 4.1% unemployment rate and +162,000 payroll gains, have reinforced expectations for tighter monetary policy. These figures, amid robust consumer spending and supply-side pressures, position a 25 basis point federal funds rate increase as the leading December FOMC outcome at 61% implied probability. Market-implied odds reflect trader consensus on persistent price pressures outweighing labor market resilience, though a hold remains plausible at 35.5% if incoming data moderates. The September 16 dot plot and October employment release will provide key updates ahead of the December 8-9 meeting.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Market Opened: Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ET
Volume
$821,393End Date
Dec 9, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent August 2026 CPI data, with headline inflation at +3.4% year-over-year and core at +2.4%, alongside a stable 4.1% unemployment rate and +162,000 payroll gains, have reinforced expectations for tighter monetary policy. These figures, amid robust consumer spending and supply-side pressures, position a 25 basis point federal funds rate increase as the leading December FOMC outcome at 61% implied probability. Market-implied odds reflect trader consensus on persistent price pressures outweighing labor market resilience, though a hold remains plausible at 35.5% if incoming data moderates. The September 16 dot plot and October employment release will provide key updates ahead of the December 8-9 meeting.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$821,393End Date
Dec 9, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent August 2026 CPI data, with headline inflation at +3.4% year-over-year and core at +2.4%, alongside a stable 4.1% unemployment rate and +162,000 payroll gains, have reinforced expectations for tighter monetary policy. These figures, amid robust consumer spending and supply-side pressures, position a 25 basis point federal funds rate increase as the leading December FOMC outcome at 61% implied probability. Market-implied odds reflect trader consensus on persistent price pressures outweighing labor market resilience, though a hold remains plausible at 35.5% if incoming data moderates. The September 16 dot plot and October employment release will provide key updates ahead of the December 8-9 meeting.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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