Recent July CPI data showing a modest easing to 3.4% year-over-year and 2.5% core has reinforced trader expectations that the Federal Reserve will hold the federal funds rate steady at the 3.50–3.75% target range through the September FOMC meeting, aligning with the 75.5% market-implied probability for three consecutive pauses. Solid GDP expansion, resilient labor market conditions, and ongoing supply-driven inflation pressures from Middle East energy shocks have kept policy officials cautious, as reflected in the July statement and the three dissenting votes favoring a 25-basis-point hike. With the September meeting now the primary remaining catalyst before resolution, modest cooling in headline and core readings has outweighed hawkish signals, sustaining the strong consensus for unchanged policy amid elevated uncertainty.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedPause–Pause–Pause 76%
Other 24%
Pause–Pause–Cut <1%
$738,667 Vol.
$738,667 Vol.
Sep 16, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
76%
Pause–Pause–Cut
<1%
Other
24%
Pause–Pause–Pause 76%
Other 24%
Pause–Pause–Cut <1%
$738,667 Vol.
$738,667 Vol.
Sep 16, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
$290,190 Vol.
76%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$72,880 Vol.
<1%
Other
$319,721 Vol.
24%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent July CPI data showing a modest easing to 3.4% year-over-year and 2.5% core has reinforced trader expectations that the Federal Reserve will hold the federal funds rate steady at the 3.50–3.75% target range through the September FOMC meeting, aligning with the 75.5% market-implied probability for three consecutive pauses. Solid GDP expansion, resilient labor market conditions, and ongoing supply-driven inflation pressures from Middle East energy shocks have kept policy officials cautious, as reflected in the July statement and the three dissenting votes favoring a 25-basis-point hike. With the September meeting now the primary remaining catalyst before resolution, modest cooling in headline and core readings has outweighed hawkish signals, sustaining the strong consensus for unchanged policy amid elevated uncertainty.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Market Opened: Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ET
Volume
$738,667End Date
Sep 16, 2026Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent July CPI data showing a modest easing to 3.4% year-over-year and 2.5% core has reinforced trader expectations that the Federal Reserve will hold the federal funds rate steady at the 3.50–3.75% target range through the September FOMC meeting, aligning with the 75.5% market-implied probability for three consecutive pauses. Solid GDP expansion, resilient labor market conditions, and ongoing supply-driven inflation pressures from Middle East energy shocks have kept policy officials cautious, as reflected in the July statement and the three dissenting votes favoring a 25-basis-point hike. With the September meeting now the primary remaining catalyst before resolution, modest cooling in headline and core readings has outweighed hawkish signals, sustaining the strong consensus for unchanged policy amid elevated uncertainty.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volume
$738,667End Date
Sep 16, 2026Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent July CPI data showing a modest easing to 3.4% year-over-year and 2.5% core has reinforced trader expectations that the Federal Reserve will hold the federal funds rate steady at the 3.50–3.75% target range through the September FOMC meeting, aligning with the 75.5% market-implied probability for three consecutive pauses. Solid GDP expansion, resilient labor market conditions, and ongoing supply-driven inflation pressures from Middle East energy shocks have kept policy officials cautious, as reflected in the July statement and the three dissenting votes favoring a 25-basis-point hike. With the September meeting now the primary remaining catalyst before resolution, modest cooling in headline and core readings has outweighed hawkish signals, sustaining the strong consensus for unchanged policy amid elevated uncertainty.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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