**Trader consensus on the September 2026 FOMC decision strongly favors no change in the federal funds target range (currently 3.50%-3.75%), reflecting a resilient U.S. labor market, elevated inflation readings, and geopolitical pressures that have reduced expectations for near-term easing.** Strong May employment gains and firm job growth have reinforced views of economic momentum, while energy price spikes tied to Middle East developments have kept CPI above the 2% target and prompted forecasters to delay or eliminate projected cuts for 2026. Incoming Chair Kevin Warsh’s first meeting in June is widely expected to maintain the current stance, with recent bank revisions (such as Goldman Sachs moving any easing to 2027) aligning with market pricing that now assigns meaningful but secondary odds to a modest 25 basis point hike. September’s scheduled Summary of Economic Projections could provide updated signals, yet absent clear disinflation or labor market softening, the path of least resistance remains unchanged policy through the summer. Geopolitical uncertainty continues to support a higher-for-longer bias among participants.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоNo change 74%
25 bps increase 16%
25 bps decrease 3.6%
50+ bps increase 1.4%
$254,119 Объем
$254,119 Объем
16 сент. 2026 г.
50+ bps decrease
1%
25 bps decrease
4%
No change
74%
25 bps increase
16%
50+ bps increase
1%
No change 74%
25 bps increase 16%
25 bps decrease 3.6%
50+ bps increase 1.4%
$254,119 Объем
$254,119 Объем
16 сент. 2026 г.
50+ bps decrease
$43,764 Объем
1%
25 bps decrease
$42,912 Объем
4%
No change
$79,261 Объем
74%
25 bps increase
$48,517 Объем
16%
50+ bps increase
$39,666 Объем
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.**Trader consensus on the September 2026 FOMC decision strongly favors no change in the federal funds target range (currently 3.50%-3.75%), reflecting a resilient U.S. labor market, elevated inflation readings, and geopolitical pressures that have reduced expectations for near-term easing.**
Strong May employment gains and firm job growth have reinforced views of economic momentum, while energy price spikes tied to Middle East developments have kept CPI above the 2% target and prompted forecasters to delay or eliminate projected cuts for 2026. Incoming Chair Kevin Warsh’s first meeting in June is widely expected to maintain the current stance, with recent bank revisions (such as Goldman Sachs moving any easing to 2027) aligning with market pricing that now assigns meaningful but secondary odds to a modest 25 basis point hike.
September’s scheduled Summary of Economic Projections could provide updated signals, yet absent clear disinflation or labor market softening, the path of least resistance remains unchanged policy through the summer. Geopolitical uncertainty continues to support a higher-for-longer bias among participants.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Открытие рынка: May 13, 2026, 5:10 PM ET
Объем
$254,119Дата окончания
16 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
May 13, 2026, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.**Trader consensus on the September 2026 FOMC decision strongly favors no change in the federal funds target range (currently 3.50%-3.75%), reflecting a resilient U.S. labor market, elevated inflation readings, and geopolitical pressures that have reduced expectations for near-term easing.**
Strong May employment gains and firm job growth have reinforced views of economic momentum, while energy price spikes tied to Middle East developments have kept CPI above the 2% target and prompted forecasters to delay or eliminate projected cuts for 2026. Incoming Chair Kevin Warsh’s first meeting in June is widely expected to maintain the current stance, with recent bank revisions (such as Goldman Sachs moving any easing to 2027) aligning with market pricing that now assigns meaningful but secondary odds to a modest 25 basis point hike.
September’s scheduled Summary of Economic Projections could provide updated signals, yet absent clear disinflation or labor market softening, the path of least resistance remains unchanged policy through the summer. Geopolitical uncertainty continues to support a higher-for-longer bias among participants.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Объем
$254,119Дата окончания
16 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
May 13, 2026, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus on the September 2026 FOMC decision strongly favors no change in the federal funds target range (currently 3.50%-3.75%), reflecting a resilient U.S. labor market, elevated inflation readings, and geopolitical pressures that have reduced expectations for near-term easing.** Strong May employment gains and firm job growth have reinforced views of economic momentum, while energy price spikes tied to Middle East developments have kept CPI above the 2% target and prompted forecasters to delay or eliminate projected cuts for 2026. Incoming Chair Kevin Warsh’s first meeting in June is widely expected to maintain the current stance, with recent bank revisions (such as Goldman Sachs moving any easing to 2027) aligning with market pricing that now assigns meaningful but secondary odds to a modest 25 basis point hike. September’s scheduled Summary of Economic Projections could provide updated signals, yet absent clear disinflation or labor market softening, the path of least resistance remains unchanged policy through the summer. Geopolitical uncertainty continues to support a higher-for-longer bias among participants.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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