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Fed rate cut by...?

$3.8M volume, ends Jan 29, 2028

July 2027 Meeting46%
April 2027 Meeting32%
June 2027 Meeting28%
March 2027 Meeting14%
January 2027 Meeting10%
December 2026 Meeting3%
October 2026 Meeting<1%
Rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for January 2026, currently scheduled for January 27-28. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If no January meeting takes place by February 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No". Emergency rate cuts will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.