Recent soft July CPI data showing 3.4% headline and 2.5% core inflation, paired with weaker nonfarm payrolls, have tempered near-term hike expectations and kept the Polymarket odds on a 2026 rate increase closely balanced near 50%. The federal funds rate remains steady at 3.50%-3.75% after the July FOMC decision, where three members dissented in favor of a 25-basis-point hike amid inflation that has exceeded the 2% target for over five years and Middle East supply shocks. Traders continue to price roughly a 38% chance of action at the September 15-16 meeting, with futures markets implying a modest path higher by year-end. The next CPI release, employment report, and FOMC deliberations will likely determine whether labor-market softening or resurgent price pressures prevail.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated46% chance
$7,508,944 Vol.
$7,508,944 Vol.
Dec 9, 2026
46% chance
$7,508,944 Vol.
$7,508,944 Vol.
Dec 9, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent soft July CPI data showing 3.4% headline and 2.5% core inflation, paired with weaker nonfarm payrolls, have tempered near-term hike expectations and kept the Polymarket odds on a 2026 rate increase closely balanced near 50%. The federal funds rate remains steady at 3.50%-3.75% after the July FOMC decision, where three members dissented in favor of a 25-basis-point hike amid inflation that has exceeded the 2% target for over five years and Middle East supply shocks. Traders continue to price roughly a 38% chance of action at the September 15-16 meeting, with futures markets implying a modest path higher by year-end. The next CPI release, employment report, and FOMC deliberations will likely determine whether labor-market softening or resurgent price pressures prevail.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
Volume
$7,508,944End Date
Dec 9, 2026Market Opened
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent soft July CPI data showing 3.4% headline and 2.5% core inflation, paired with weaker nonfarm payrolls, have tempered near-term hike expectations and kept the Polymarket odds on a 2026 rate increase closely balanced near 50%. The federal funds rate remains steady at 3.50%-3.75% after the July FOMC decision, where three members dissented in favor of a 25-basis-point hike amid inflation that has exceeded the 2% target for over five years and Middle East supply shocks. Traders continue to price roughly a 38% chance of action at the September 15-16 meeting, with futures markets implying a modest path higher by year-end. The next CPI release, employment report, and FOMC deliberations will likely determine whether labor-market softening or resurgent price pressures prevail.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$7,508,944End Date
Dec 9, 2026Market Opened
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent soft July CPI data showing 3.4% headline and 2.5% core inflation, paired with weaker nonfarm payrolls, have tempered near-term hike expectations and kept the Polymarket odds on a 2026 rate increase closely balanced near 50%. The federal funds rate remains steady at 3.50%-3.75% after the July FOMC decision, where three members dissented in favor of a 25-basis-point hike amid inflation that has exceeded the 2% target for over five years and Middle East supply shocks. Traders continue to price roughly a 38% chance of action at the September 15-16 meeting, with futures markets implying a modest path higher by year-end. The next CPI release, employment report, and FOMC deliberations will likely determine whether labor-market softening or resurgent price pressures prevail.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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