**Persistent inflation near 3.4% year-over-year and a cooling but still resilient labor market underpin the market-implied odds favoring no change (71.5%) or a 25 basis point hike (23.5%) at the October 27-28 FOMC meeting.** July CPI rose just 0.1% month-over-month with core measures holding around 2.5%, while unemployment edged down to 4.1% amid a -23,000 payroll print and labor-force contraction, keeping the Fed's dual-mandate risks balanced toward caution. Recent communications under Chair Warsh, including simplified guidance and task forces on policy frameworks, have reinforced expectations of a steady 3.50-3.75% funds rate range after multiple holds. Traders price in only modest odds of easing given the gap above the 2% target, while the next catalysts—August CPI on September 11 and the September FOMC—could shift sentiment if data surprise materially. These probabilities reflect real-capital consensus on the data path through late October.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFed Decision in October?
Fed Decision in October?
No change 72%
25 bps increase 24%
25 bps decrease 4.7%
50+ bps decrease 1.5%
$655,319 Vol.
$655,319 Vol.
Oct 28, 2026
50+ bps decrease
2%
25 bps decrease
5%
No change
72%
25 bps increase
24%
50+ bps increase
1%
No change 72%
25 bps increase 24%
25 bps decrease 4.7%
50+ bps decrease 1.5%
$655,319 Vol.
$655,319 Vol.
Oct 28, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$126,328 Vol.
2%
25 bps decrease
$197,224 Vol.
5%
No change
$139,730 Vol.
72%
25 bps increase
$134,690 Vol.
24%
50+ bps increase
$57,347 Vol.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.**Persistent inflation near 3.4% year-over-year and a cooling but still resilient labor market underpin the market-implied odds favoring no change (71.5%) or a 25 basis point hike (23.5%) at the October 27-28 FOMC meeting.** July CPI rose just 0.1% month-over-month with core measures holding around 2.5%, while unemployment edged down to 4.1% amid a -23,000 payroll print and labor-force contraction, keeping the Fed's dual-mandate risks balanced toward caution. Recent communications under Chair Warsh, including simplified guidance and task forces on policy frameworks, have reinforced expectations of a steady 3.50-3.75% funds rate range after multiple holds. Traders price in only modest odds of easing given the gap above the 2% target, while the next catalysts—August CPI on September 11 and the September FOMC—could shift sentiment if data surprise materially. These probabilities reflect real-capital consensus on the data path through late October.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Market Opened: Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ET
Volume
$655,319End Date
Oct 28, 2026Market Opened
Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.**Persistent inflation near 3.4% year-over-year and a cooling but still resilient labor market underpin the market-implied odds favoring no change (71.5%) or a 25 basis point hike (23.5%) at the October 27-28 FOMC meeting.** July CPI rose just 0.1% month-over-month with core measures holding around 2.5%, while unemployment edged down to 4.1% amid a -23,000 payroll print and labor-force contraction, keeping the Fed's dual-mandate risks balanced toward caution. Recent communications under Chair Warsh, including simplified guidance and task forces on policy frameworks, have reinforced expectations of a steady 3.50-3.75% funds rate range after multiple holds. Traders price in only modest odds of easing given the gap above the 2% target, while the next catalysts—August CPI on September 11 and the September FOMC—could shift sentiment if data surprise materially. These probabilities reflect real-capital consensus on the data path through late October.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$655,319End Date
Oct 28, 2026Market Opened
Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Persistent inflation near 3.4% year-over-year and a cooling but still resilient labor market underpin the market-implied odds favoring no change (71.5%) or a 25 basis point hike (23.5%) at the October 27-28 FOMC meeting.** July CPI rose just 0.1% month-over-month with core measures holding around 2.5%, while unemployment edged down to 4.1% amid a -23,000 payroll print and labor-force contraction, keeping the Fed's dual-mandate risks balanced toward caution. Recent communications under Chair Warsh, including simplified guidance and task forces on policy frameworks, have reinforced expectations of a steady 3.50-3.75% funds rate range after multiple holds. Traders price in only modest odds of easing given the gap above the 2% target, while the next catalysts—August CPI on September 11 and the September FOMC—could shift sentiment if data surprise materially. These probabilities reflect real-capital consensus on the data path through late October.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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