Recent July CPI data showing headline inflation easing only modestly to 3.4% year-over-year, with core at 2.5%, alongside elevated energy prices, has anchored trader expectations for the October FOMC meeting. With the federal funds rate already steady at 3.50-3.75% following the July hold and dissenters favoring a hike, the 71.5% implied probability of no change reflects the Fed’s data-dependent pause amid a resilient labor market (unemployment at 4.1%). The 23.5% odds of a 25 basis point increase capture hawkish sentiment from persistent above-target readings and forward guidance, while deeper cuts remain sidelined below 5% combined. Key near-term catalysts include the August CPI release, September employment report, and the September 15-16 FOMC decision that could shift the October path.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFed Decision in October?
Fed Decision in October?
No change 72%
25 bps increase 24%
25 bps decrease 3.8%
50+ bps decrease 1.6%
$615,666 Vol.
$615,666 Vol.
Oct 28, 2026
50+ bps decrease
2%
25 bps decrease
4%
No change
72%
25 bps increase
24%
50+ bps increase
1%
No change 72%
25 bps increase 24%
25 bps decrease 3.8%
50+ bps decrease 1.6%
$615,666 Vol.
$615,666 Vol.
Oct 28, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$125,528 Vol.
2%
25 bps decrease
$162,539 Vol.
4%
No change
$138,735 Vol.
72%
25 bps increase
$133,468 Vol.
24%
50+ bps increase
$55,396 Vol.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent July CPI data showing headline inflation easing only modestly to 3.4% year-over-year, with core at 2.5%, alongside elevated energy prices, has anchored trader expectations for the October FOMC meeting. With the federal funds rate already steady at 3.50-3.75% following the July hold and dissenters favoring a hike, the 71.5% implied probability of no change reflects the Fed’s data-dependent pause amid a resilient labor market (unemployment at 4.1%). The 23.5% odds of a 25 basis point increase capture hawkish sentiment from persistent above-target readings and forward guidance, while deeper cuts remain sidelined below 5% combined. Key near-term catalysts include the August CPI release, September employment report, and the September 15-16 FOMC decision that could shift the October path.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Market Opened: Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ET
Volume
$615,666End Date
Oct 28, 2026Market Opened
Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent July CPI data showing headline inflation easing only modestly to 3.4% year-over-year, with core at 2.5%, alongside elevated energy prices, has anchored trader expectations for the October FOMC meeting. With the federal funds rate already steady at 3.50-3.75% following the July hold and dissenters favoring a hike, the 71.5% implied probability of no change reflects the Fed’s data-dependent pause amid a resilient labor market (unemployment at 4.1%). The 23.5% odds of a 25 basis point increase capture hawkish sentiment from persistent above-target readings and forward guidance, while deeper cuts remain sidelined below 5% combined. Key near-term catalysts include the August CPI release, September employment report, and the September 15-16 FOMC decision that could shift the October path.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$615,666End Date
Oct 28, 2026Market Opened
Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent July CPI data showing headline inflation easing only modestly to 3.4% year-over-year, with core at 2.5%, alongside elevated energy prices, has anchored trader expectations for the October FOMC meeting. With the federal funds rate already steady at 3.50-3.75% following the July hold and dissenters favoring a hike, the 71.5% implied probability of no change reflects the Fed’s data-dependent pause amid a resilient labor market (unemployment at 4.1%). The 23.5% odds of a 25 basis point increase capture hawkish sentiment from persistent above-target readings and forward guidance, while deeper cuts remain sidelined below 5% combined. Key near-term catalysts include the August CPI release, September employment report, and the September 15-16 FOMC decision that could shift the October path.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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