The market-implied odds heavily favor no change at the Banco de la República’s September 30 meeting, with the policy rate steady at the current 12.0% level following the July hold after June’s 75-basis-point hike. Persistent headline inflation near 6.1%—well above the 3% target—and end-2026 expectations around 6.5–6.6% continue to anchor the restrictive stance, supported by solid GDP growth near 2.5% for 2026, low unemployment, and wage pressures. Recent Colombian peso strength, however, has provided meaningful disinflationary relief through imported goods and services, prompting the board’s divided July decision to pause and assess lagged effects of prior tightening amid external risks such as El Niño and Middle East developments. Recent analyst surveys, including Fedesarrollo’s August poll, now project stability through year-end rather than further increases, aligning with the dominant no-change consensus while modest hike probabilities reflect residual upside inflation risks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNo change 72%
50+ bps increase 8.6%
25 bps increase 8.3%
25 bps decrease <1%
$31,700 Vol.
$31,700 Vol.
Sep 29, 2026
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
<1%
No change
72%
25 bps increase
18%
50+ bps increase
15%
No change 72%
50+ bps increase 8.6%
25 bps increase 8.3%
25 bps decrease <1%
$31,700 Vol.
$31,700 Vol.
Sep 29, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$2,073 Vol.
<1%
25 bps decrease
$1,654 Vol.
<1%
No change
$13,369 Vol.
72%
25 bps increase
$10,884 Vol.
18%
50+ bps increase
$3,770 Vol.
15%
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the monetary policy interest rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the Central Bank of Colombia (Banco de la Republica), relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Central Bank of Colombia, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 30, 2026, as listed on the official Central Bank of Colombia calendar (https://www.banrep.gov.co/es/calendario-eventos). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Central Bank of Colombia's September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.The market-implied odds heavily favor no change at the Banco de la República’s September 30 meeting, with the policy rate steady at the current 12.0% level following the July hold after June’s 75-basis-point hike. Persistent headline inflation near 6.1%—well above the 3% target—and end-2026 expectations around 6.5–6.6% continue to anchor the restrictive stance, supported by solid GDP growth near 2.5% for 2026, low unemployment, and wage pressures. Recent Colombian peso strength, however, has provided meaningful disinflationary relief through imported goods and services, prompting the board’s divided July decision to pause and assess lagged effects of prior tightening amid external risks such as El Niño and Middle East developments. Recent analyst surveys, including Fedesarrollo’s August poll, now project stability through year-end rather than further increases, aligning with the dominant no-change consensus while modest hike probabilities reflect residual upside inflation risks.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the monetary policy interest rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the Central Bank of Colombia (Banco de la Republica), relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Central Bank of Colombia, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 30, 2026, as listed on the official Central Bank of Colombia calendar (https://www.banrep.gov.co/es/calendario-eventos). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Central Bank of Colombia's September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Central Bank of Colombia, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 30, 2026, as listed on the official Central Bank of Colombia calendar (https://www.banrep.gov.co/es/calendario-eventos). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Central Bank of Colombia's September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 1, 2026, 12:27 PM ET
Volume
$31,700End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Jul 1, 2026, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the monetary policy interest rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the Central Bank of Colombia (Banco de la Republica), relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Central Bank of Colombia, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 30, 2026, as listed on the official Central Bank of Colombia calendar (https://www.banrep.gov.co/es/calendario-eventos). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Central Bank of Colombia's September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.The market-implied odds heavily favor no change at the Banco de la República’s September 30 meeting, with the policy rate steady at the current 12.0% level following the July hold after June’s 75-basis-point hike. Persistent headline inflation near 6.1%—well above the 3% target—and end-2026 expectations around 6.5–6.6% continue to anchor the restrictive stance, supported by solid GDP growth near 2.5% for 2026, low unemployment, and wage pressures. Recent Colombian peso strength, however, has provided meaningful disinflationary relief through imported goods and services, prompting the board’s divided July decision to pause and assess lagged effects of prior tightening amid external risks such as El Niño and Middle East developments. Recent analyst surveys, including Fedesarrollo’s August poll, now project stability through year-end rather than further increases, aligning with the dominant no-change consensus while modest hike probabilities reflect residual upside inflation risks.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the monetary policy interest rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the Central Bank of Colombia (Banco de la Republica), relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Central Bank of Colombia, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 30, 2026, as listed on the official Central Bank of Colombia calendar (https://www.banrep.gov.co/es/calendario-eventos). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Central Bank of Colombia's September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Central Bank of Colombia, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 30, 2026, as listed on the official Central Bank of Colombia calendar (https://www.banrep.gov.co/es/calendario-eventos). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Central Bank of Colombia's September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Volume
$31,700End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Jul 1, 2026, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The market-implied odds heavily favor no change at the Banco de la República’s September 30 meeting, with the policy rate steady at the current 12.0% level following the July hold after June’s 75-basis-point hike. Persistent headline inflation near 6.1%—well above the 3% target—and end-2026 expectations around 6.5–6.6% continue to anchor the restrictive stance, supported by solid GDP growth near 2.5% for 2026, low unemployment, and wage pressures. Recent Colombian peso strength, however, has provided meaningful disinflationary relief through imported goods and services, prompting the board’s divided July decision to pause and assess lagged effects of prior tightening amid external risks such as El Niño and Middle East developments. Recent analyst surveys, including Fedesarrollo’s August poll, now project stability through year-end rather than further increases, aligning with the dominant no-change consensus while modest hike probabilities reflect residual upside inflation risks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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