Recent strong August jobs data, with nonfarm payrolls surging 162,000 versus 56,000 expected and unemployment holding at 4.1%, has elevated market-implied odds of a September hike while inflation remains above target amid supply disruptions. Trader consensus on the September-October-December path remains fragmented, with Pause-Pause-Pause at 27.5% leading narrowly over sequences incorporating one or more 25-basis-point hikes, reflecting uncertainty over the Federal Reserve’s reaction function under Chair Warsh and the balance between resilient labor markets and cooling wage growth. Key upcoming catalysts include the September 15-16 FOMC meeting and forthcoming CPI data, which could shift implied probabilities if they confirm or ease price pressures.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedPause–Pause–Pause 28%
Hike–Pause–Pause 19%
Pause–Pause–Hike 15%
Pause–Hike–Hike 13%
$10,897 Vol.
$10,897 Vol.
Dec 9, 2026
Hike–Pause–Hike
11%
Hike–Pause–Pause
19%
Hike–Hike–Hike
5%
Hike–Hike–Pause
6%
Pause–Pause–Hike
15%
Pause–Pause–Pause
28%
Pause–Hike–Hike
13%
Pause–Hike–Pause
11%
Other
5%
Pause–Pause–Pause 28%
Hike–Pause–Pause 19%
Pause–Pause–Hike 15%
Pause–Hike–Hike 13%
$10,897 Vol.
$10,897 Vol.
Dec 9, 2026
Hike–Pause–Hike
$314 Vol.
11%
Hike–Pause–Pause
$296 Vol.
19%
Hike–Hike–Hike
$216 Vol.
5%
Hike–Hike–Pause
$237 Vol.
6%
Pause–Pause–Hike
$253 Vol.
15%
Pause–Pause–Pause
$8,928 Vol.
28%
Pause–Hike–Hike
$237 Vol.
13%
Pause–Hike–Pause
$214 Vol.
11%
Other
$203 Vol.
5%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent strong August jobs data, with nonfarm payrolls surging 162,000 versus 56,000 expected and unemployment holding at 4.1%, has elevated market-implied odds of a September hike while inflation remains above target amid supply disruptions. Trader consensus on the September-October-December path remains fragmented, with Pause-Pause-Pause at 27.5% leading narrowly over sequences incorporating one or more 25-basis-point hikes, reflecting uncertainty over the Federal Reserve’s reaction function under Chair Warsh and the balance between resilient labor markets and cooling wage growth. Key upcoming catalysts include the September 15-16 FOMC meeting and forthcoming CPI data, which could shift implied probabilities if they confirm or ease price pressures.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Market Opened: Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ET
Volume
$10,897End Date
Dec 9, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent strong August jobs data, with nonfarm payrolls surging 162,000 versus 56,000 expected and unemployment holding at 4.1%, has elevated market-implied odds of a September hike while inflation remains above target amid supply disruptions. Trader consensus on the September-October-December path remains fragmented, with Pause-Pause-Pause at 27.5% leading narrowly over sequences incorporating one or more 25-basis-point hikes, reflecting uncertainty over the Federal Reserve’s reaction function under Chair Warsh and the balance between resilient labor markets and cooling wage growth. Key upcoming catalysts include the September 15-16 FOMC meeting and forthcoming CPI data, which could shift implied probabilities if they confirm or ease price pressures.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volume
$10,897End Date
Dec 9, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent strong August jobs data, with nonfarm payrolls surging 162,000 versus 56,000 expected and unemployment holding at 4.1%, has elevated market-implied odds of a September hike while inflation remains above target amid supply disruptions. Trader consensus on the September-October-December path remains fragmented, with Pause-Pause-Pause at 27.5% leading narrowly over sequences incorporating one or more 25-basis-point hikes, reflecting uncertainty over the Federal Reserve’s reaction function under Chair Warsh and the balance between resilient labor markets and cooling wage growth. Key upcoming catalysts include the September 15-16 FOMC meeting and forthcoming CPI data, which could shift implied probabilities if they confirm or ease price pressures.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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