Trump's May 2026 appointment of Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve Chair, followed by the White House swearing-in and explicit calls for policy independence, underpins the 94.2% market-implied probability against any firing attempt this year. Recent administration communications have positioned Warsh as an aligned choice on monetary policy, with no reported clashes over rate paths or governance despite broader tensions with other Board members. Trader consensus reflects the short tenure to date and Trump's stated preference for continuity ahead of key data releases. A material shift could occur if inflation or labor-market data prompt Warsh to deviate sharply from expected easing, testing the relationship before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated6% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
6% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trump's May 2026 appointment of Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve Chair, followed by the White House swearing-in and explicit calls for policy independence, underpins the 94.2% market-implied probability against any firing attempt this year. Recent administration communications have positioned Warsh as an aligned choice on monetary policy, with no reported clashes over rate paths or governance despite broader tensions with other Board members. Trader consensus reflects the short tenure to date and Trump's stated preference for continuity ahead of key data releases. A material shift could occur if inflation or labor-market data prompt Warsh to deviate sharply from expected easing, testing the relationship before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jul 24, 2026, 11:56 AM ET
Volume
$9,452End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 24, 2026, 11:56 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trump's May 2026 appointment of Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve Chair, followed by the White House swearing-in and explicit calls for policy independence, underpins the 94.2% market-implied probability against any firing attempt this year. Recent administration communications have positioned Warsh as an aligned choice on monetary policy, with no reported clashes over rate paths or governance despite broader tensions with other Board members. Trader consensus reflects the short tenure to date and Trump's stated preference for continuity ahead of key data releases. A material shift could occur if inflation or labor-market data prompt Warsh to deviate sharply from expected easing, testing the relationship before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$9,452End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 24, 2026, 11:56 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trump's May 2026 appointment of Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve Chair, followed by the White House swearing-in and explicit calls for policy independence, underpins the 94.2% market-implied probability against any firing attempt this year. Recent administration communications have positioned Warsh as an aligned choice on monetary policy, with no reported clashes over rate paths or governance despite broader tensions with other Board members. Trader consensus reflects the short tenure to date and Trump's stated preference for continuity ahead of key data releases. A material shift could occur if inflation or labor-market data prompt Warsh to deviate sharply from expected easing, testing the relationship before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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