Traders assign a 98.2% implied probability that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will not face jail time before 2027, reflecting the absence of any criminal investigations, charges, or credible allegations against him. As an appointed official serving a fixed term, Powell operates within strong institutional protections, and no recent regulatory filings, congressional actions, or enforcement developments suggest legal exposure. Market-implied odds align with historical precedent for senior central bankers, where political friction over monetary policy has never translated into criminal proceedings. While tail risks such as an unprecedented executive-branch prosecution or fabricated charges in a polarized environment cannot be entirely ruled out, these remain remote given legal safeguards, oversight mechanisms, and the lack of supporting evidence in public records.