The swift dismissal of the Department of Justice's criminal probe into Jerome Powell's oversight of the Federal Reserve's headquarters renovation, coupled with a federal court ruling deeming the subpoenas a "mere pretext" for political pressure, underpins the 98% market-implied probability of "No." With the inquiry closed in April 2026 after finding no evidence of wrongdoing, Powell faces no pending charges or credible legal exposure as a sitting governor through 2028. Institutional norms shielding independent central bankers, combined with the absence of other investigations, drive this near-certain trader consensus backed by real capital. Tail risks remain remote, such as an unprecedented escalation of executive-branch actions bypassing judicial checks, though such developments would require extraordinary shifts in legal and political precedent.