Eurozone growth forecasts for 2026 have clustered tightly around 0.8–1.0% following repeated downward revisions by the ECB, OECD, and IMF, driven by the ongoing energy shock from Middle East tensions and a Q1 contraction of 0.2% quarter-over-quarter. Weakening PMI readings in Q2, soft industrial output, and subdued consumer confidence have reinforced expectations for sub-1% annual expansion, aligning with the 79.1% market-implied probability for the 0–1.0% bucket. A provisional U.S.-Iran agreement offers modest relief for H2, yet persistent inflation risks above 3% and the ECB’s data-dependent stance on rates continue to cap upside. Key upcoming releases on Q2 GDP, August inflation, and the September ECB meeting will test whether momentum stabilizes near these levels.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated0-1.0% 78.8%
1.0-2.0% 16%
4.0-5.0% 5.9%
<0% 2.3%
$30,417 Vol.
$30,417 Vol.
Jan 30, 2027
<0%
2%
0-1.0%
79%
1.0-2.0%
16%
2.0-3.0%
1%
3.0-4.0%
<1%
4.0-5.0%
6%
5.0-6.0%
<1%
6.0-7.0%
1%
7.0%+
<1%
0-1.0% 78.8%
1.0-2.0% 16%
4.0-5.0% 5.9%
<0% 2.3%
$30,417 Vol.
$30,417 Vol.
Jan 30, 2027
<0%
$1,672 Vol.
2%
0-1.0%
$11,512 Vol.
79%
1.0-2.0%
$7,156 Vol.
16%
2.0-3.0%
$1,180 Vol.
1%
3.0-4.0%
$1,096 Vol.
<1%
4.0-5.0%
$2,240 Vol.
6%
5.0-6.0%
$1,185 Vol.
<1%
6.0-7.0%
$2,648 Vol.
1%
7.0%+
$1,728 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Eurozone growth forecasts for 2026 have clustered tightly around 0.8–1.0% following repeated downward revisions by the ECB, OECD, and IMF, driven by the ongoing energy shock from Middle East tensions and a Q1 contraction of 0.2% quarter-over-quarter. Weakening PMI readings in Q2, soft industrial output, and subdued consumer confidence have reinforced expectations for sub-1% annual expansion, aligning with the 79.1% market-implied probability for the 0–1.0% bucket. A provisional U.S.-Iran agreement offers modest relief for H2, yet persistent inflation risks above 3% and the ECB’s data-dependent stance on rates continue to cap upside. Key upcoming releases on Q2 GDP, August inflation, and the September ECB meeting will test whether momentum stabilizes near these levels.
This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Jan 21, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
Volume
$30,417End Date
Jan 31, 2027Market Opened
Jan 21, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Eurozone growth forecasts for 2026 have clustered tightly around 0.8–1.0% following repeated downward revisions by the ECB, OECD, and IMF, driven by the ongoing energy shock from Middle East tensions and a Q1 contraction of 0.2% quarter-over-quarter. Weakening PMI readings in Q2, soft industrial output, and subdued consumer confidence have reinforced expectations for sub-1% annual expansion, aligning with the 79.1% market-implied probability for the 0–1.0% bucket. A provisional U.S.-Iran agreement offers modest relief for H2, yet persistent inflation risks above 3% and the ECB’s data-dependent stance on rates continue to cap upside. Key upcoming releases on Q2 GDP, August inflation, and the September ECB meeting will test whether momentum stabilizes near these levels.
This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$30,417End Date
Jan 31, 2027Market Opened
Jan 21, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Eurozone growth forecasts for 2026 have clustered tightly around 0.8–1.0% following repeated downward revisions by the ECB, OECD, and IMF, driven by the ongoing energy shock from Middle East tensions and a Q1 contraction of 0.2% quarter-over-quarter. Weakening PMI readings in Q2, soft industrial output, and subdued consumer confidence have reinforced expectations for sub-1% annual expansion, aligning with the 79.1% market-implied probability for the 0–1.0% bucket. A provisional U.S.-Iran agreement offers modest relief for H2, yet persistent inflation risks above 3% and the ECB’s data-dependent stance on rates continue to cap upside. Key upcoming releases on Q2 GDP, August inflation, and the September ECB meeting will test whether momentum stabilizes near these levels.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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