Recent July CPI data, with core inflation rising 0.2% month-over-month to a 2.5% annual rate, has centered trader expectations for the August release around similar outcomes. Cleveland Fed nowcasts currently project 0.20% for August core CPI MoM, reflecting contained goods prices and steady shelter costs despite lingering services pressures. With probabilities clustered between 0.1% and 0.3%, markets price in uncertainty over potential rebounds in used vehicles or airfares versus further moderation in shelter. The Federal Reserve’s patient stance at the 3.50–3.75% funds rate range amplifies focus on this report ahead of the September FOMC meeting, where incoming data could shift rate path expectations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated0.2% 31%
0.1% 23%
0.3% 20%
≤0.0% 14%
NEW
NEW
Sep 11, 2026
≤0.0%
14%
0.1%
23%
0.2%
47%
0.3%
20%
0.4%
7%
0.5%
7%
0.6%+
6%
0.2% 31%
0.1% 23%
0.3% 20%
≤0.0% 14%
NEW
NEW
Sep 11, 2026
≤0.0%
$60 Vol.
14%
0.1%
$68 Vol.
23%
0.2%
$60 Vol.
47%
0.3%
$48 Vol.
20%
0.4%
$48 Vol.
7%
0.5%
$48 Vol.
7%
0.6%+
$48 Vol.
6%
This is a market about the one-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy in August 2026 as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the one-month percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report (seasonally adjusted change from the preceding month).
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for August 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on September 11, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent July CPI data, with core inflation rising 0.2% month-over-month to a 2.5% annual rate, has centered trader expectations for the August release around similar outcomes. Cleveland Fed nowcasts currently project 0.20% for August core CPI MoM, reflecting contained goods prices and steady shelter costs despite lingering services pressures. With probabilities clustered between 0.1% and 0.3%, markets price in uncertainty over potential rebounds in used vehicles or airfares versus further moderation in shelter. The Federal Reserve’s patient stance at the 3.50–3.75% funds rate range amplifies focus on this report ahead of the September FOMC meeting, where incoming data could shift rate path expectations.
This is a market about the one-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy in August 2026 as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the one-month percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report (seasonally adjusted change from the preceding month).
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for August 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on September 11, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the one-month percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report (seasonally adjusted change from the preceding month).
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for August 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on September 11, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 10:16 AM ET
Volume
$381End Date
Sep 11, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 10:16 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This is a market about the one-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy in August 2026 as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the one-month percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report (seasonally adjusted change from the preceding month).
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for August 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on September 11, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent July CPI data, with core inflation rising 0.2% month-over-month to a 2.5% annual rate, has centered trader expectations for the August release around similar outcomes. Cleveland Fed nowcasts currently project 0.20% for August core CPI MoM, reflecting contained goods prices and steady shelter costs despite lingering services pressures. With probabilities clustered between 0.1% and 0.3%, markets price in uncertainty over potential rebounds in used vehicles or airfares versus further moderation in shelter. The Federal Reserve’s patient stance at the 3.50–3.75% funds rate range amplifies focus on this report ahead of the September FOMC meeting, where incoming data could shift rate path expectations.
This is a market about the one-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy in August 2026 as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the one-month percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report (seasonally adjusted change from the preceding month).
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for August 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on September 11, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the one-month percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report (seasonally adjusted change from the preceding month).
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for August 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on September 11, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Volume
$381End Date
Sep 11, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 10:16 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent July CPI data, with core inflation rising 0.2% month-over-month to a 2.5% annual rate, has centered trader expectations for the August release around similar outcomes. Cleveland Fed nowcasts currently project 0.20% for August core CPI MoM, reflecting contained goods prices and steady shelter costs despite lingering services pressures. With probabilities clustered between 0.1% and 0.3%, markets price in uncertainty over potential rebounds in used vehicles or airfares versus further moderation in shelter. The Federal Reserve’s patient stance at the 3.50–3.75% funds rate range amplifies focus on this report ahead of the September FOMC meeting, where incoming data could shift rate path expectations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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