Trader consensus in the Brazil annual inflation 2026 market reflects a tight contest centered on the 5.00–6.49% range, with the 5.00–5.49% bucket holding a narrow lead at 26.6% implied probability. Recent April 2026 IPCA data printed at 4.39% year-over-year, accelerating from 4.14% in March amid rising food, housing, and transport costs, while Focus survey projections for full-year 2026 have climbed to around 4.3–4.7% following energy price shocks and persistent services inflation. Central Bank of Brazil communications and fiscal policy signals continue to anchor expectations above the 3.0% target midpoint, with upcoming monthly releases and Selic rate decisions likely to drive further shifts in aggregated trader positioning.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato5,00-5,49% 34.4%
6,00-6,49% 32.8%
5,50-5,99% 21.1%
4,50-4,99% 13.7%
$63,810 Vol.
$63,810 Vol.
12 gen 2027
<3,00%
1%
3,00-3,49%
1%
3,50-3,99%
5%
4,00-4,49%
2%
4,50-4,99%
17%
5,00-5,49%
34%
5,50-5,99%
21%
6,00-6,49%
27%
6,50-6,99%
23%
7,00%+
5%
5,00-5,49% 34.4%
6,00-6,49% 32.8%
5,50-5,99% 21.1%
4,50-4,99% 13.7%
$63,810 Vol.
$63,810 Vol.
12 gen 2027
<3,00%
$4,640 Vol.
1%
3,00-3,49%
$4,422 Vol.
1%
3,50-3,99%
$11,694 Vol.
5%
4,00-4,49%
$8,721 Vol.
2%
4,50-4,99%
$8,119 Vol.
17%
5,00-5,49%
$6,238 Vol.
34%
5,50-5,99%
$5,912 Vol.
21%
6,00-6,49%
$5,051 Vol.
27%
6,50-6,99%
$5,247 Vol.
23%
7,00%+
$3,766 Vol.
5%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlTrader consensus in the Brazil annual inflation 2026 market reflects a tight contest centered on the 5.00–6.49% range, with the 5.00–5.49% bucket holding a narrow lead at 26.6% implied probability. Recent April 2026 IPCA data printed at 4.39% year-over-year, accelerating from 4.14% in March amid rising food, housing, and transport costs, while Focus survey projections for full-year 2026 have climbed to around 4.3–4.7% following energy price shocks and persistent services inflation. Central Bank of Brazil communications and fiscal policy signals continue to anchor expectations above the 3.0% target midpoint, with upcoming monthly releases and Selic rate decisions likely to drive further shifts in aggregated trader positioning.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Mercato aperto: Jan 23, 2026, 10:35 AM ET
Volume
$63,810Data di fine
12 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Jan 23, 2026, 10:35 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlTrader consensus in the Brazil annual inflation 2026 market reflects a tight contest centered on the 5.00–6.49% range, with the 5.00–5.49% bucket holding a narrow lead at 26.6% implied probability. Recent April 2026 IPCA data printed at 4.39% year-over-year, accelerating from 4.14% in March amid rising food, housing, and transport costs, while Focus survey projections for full-year 2026 have climbed to around 4.3–4.7% following energy price shocks and persistent services inflation. Central Bank of Brazil communications and fiscal policy signals continue to anchor expectations above the 3.0% target midpoint, with upcoming monthly releases and Selic rate decisions likely to drive further shifts in aggregated trader positioning.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Volume
$63,810Data di fine
12 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Jan 23, 2026, 10:35 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus in the Brazil annual inflation 2026 market reflects a tight contest centered on the 5.00–6.49% range, with the 5.00–5.49% bucket holding a narrow lead at 26.6% implied probability. Recent April 2026 IPCA data printed at 4.39% year-over-year, accelerating from 4.14% in March amid rising food, housing, and transport costs, while Focus survey projections for full-year 2026 have climbed to around 4.3–4.7% following energy price shocks and persistent services inflation. Central Bank of Brazil communications and fiscal policy signals continue to anchor expectations above the 3.0% target midpoint, with upcoming monthly releases and Selic rate decisions likely to drive further shifts in aggregated trader positioning.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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