**Recent legislative outcomes and ongoing political dynamics explain the 83% implied probability that federal capital gains tax rates will not be cut by the end of 2026.** Congress passed the One Big Beautiful Bill Act in 2025, which permanently extended many Tax Cuts and Jobs Act provisions—including ordinary income rate structures and various deductions—but left long-term capital gains rates unchanged at the existing 0/15/20% brackets for 2026, with inflation-adjusted thresholds. Proposals for further reductions, such as indexing gains for inflation or expanding home-sale exclusions, have surfaced in congressional bills and recent White House discussions ahead of the midterms. However, these remain preliminary ideas without enacted legislation or firm timelines. With limited session time remaining and competing fiscal priorities, traders view successful passage of a rate cut as unlikely before the market’s resolution date.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated16% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
16% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reduces the federal taxes individuals owe on long-term capital gains by changing how those gains are taxed or calculated is enacted into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying change does not need to apply to all taxpayers or all long-term capital gains. Legislation will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" if it directly reduces or eliminates federal tax owed on long-term capital gains for individuals generally or for a defined class of taxpayers or gains, including through a tax rate reduction, exemption or exclusion, change in applicable thresholds, change in how basis or gains are calculated, or another statutory mechanism. The qualifying change can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks will count. Changes that only defer when tax is paid, or that reduce a taxpayer's overall federal tax liability without specifically changing the taxation or calculation of long-term capital gains, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**Recent legislative outcomes and ongoing political dynamics explain the 83% implied probability that federal capital gains tax rates will not be cut by the end of 2026.** Congress passed the One Big Beautiful Bill Act in 2025, which permanently extended many Tax Cuts and Jobs Act provisions—including ordinary income rate structures and various deductions—but left long-term capital gains rates unchanged at the existing 0/15/20% brackets for 2026, with inflation-adjusted thresholds.
Proposals for further reductions, such as indexing gains for inflation or expanding home-sale exclusions, have surfaced in congressional bills and recent White House discussions ahead of the midterms. However, these remain preliminary ideas without enacted legislation or firm timelines. With limited session time remaining and competing fiscal priorities, traders view successful passage of a rate cut as unlikely before the market’s resolution date.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reduces the federal taxes individuals owe on long-term capital gains by changing how those gains are taxed or calculated is enacted into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying change does not need to apply to all taxpayers or all long-term capital gains. Legislation will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" if it directly reduces or eliminates federal tax owed on long-term capital gains for individuals generally or for a defined class of taxpayers or gains, including through a tax rate reduction, exemption or exclusion, change in applicable thresholds, change in how basis or gains are calculated, or another statutory mechanism. The qualifying change can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks will count. Changes that only defer when tax is paid, or that reduce a taxpayer's overall federal tax liability without specifically changing the taxation or calculation of long-term capital gains, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A qualifying change does not need to apply to all taxpayers or all long-term capital gains. Legislation will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" if it directly reduces or eliminates federal tax owed on long-term capital gains for individuals generally or for a defined class of taxpayers or gains, including through a tax rate reduction, exemption or exclusion, change in applicable thresholds, change in how basis or gains are calculated, or another statutory mechanism. The qualifying change can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks will count. Changes that only defer when tax is paid, or that reduce a taxpayer's overall federal tax liability without specifically changing the taxation or calculation of long-term capital gains, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 10:39 AM ET
Volume
$95End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 10:39 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reduces the federal taxes individuals owe on long-term capital gains by changing how those gains are taxed or calculated is enacted into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying change does not need to apply to all taxpayers or all long-term capital gains. Legislation will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" if it directly reduces or eliminates federal tax owed on long-term capital gains for individuals generally or for a defined class of taxpayers or gains, including through a tax rate reduction, exemption or exclusion, change in applicable thresholds, change in how basis or gains are calculated, or another statutory mechanism. The qualifying change can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks will count. Changes that only defer when tax is paid, or that reduce a taxpayer's overall federal tax liability without specifically changing the taxation or calculation of long-term capital gains, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**Recent legislative outcomes and ongoing political dynamics explain the 83% implied probability that federal capital gains tax rates will not be cut by the end of 2026.** Congress passed the One Big Beautiful Bill Act in 2025, which permanently extended many Tax Cuts and Jobs Act provisions—including ordinary income rate structures and various deductions—but left long-term capital gains rates unchanged at the existing 0/15/20% brackets for 2026, with inflation-adjusted thresholds.
Proposals for further reductions, such as indexing gains for inflation or expanding home-sale exclusions, have surfaced in congressional bills and recent White House discussions ahead of the midterms. However, these remain preliminary ideas without enacted legislation or firm timelines. With limited session time remaining and competing fiscal priorities, traders view successful passage of a rate cut as unlikely before the market’s resolution date.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reduces the federal taxes individuals owe on long-term capital gains by changing how those gains are taxed or calculated is enacted into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying change does not need to apply to all taxpayers or all long-term capital gains. Legislation will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" if it directly reduces or eliminates federal tax owed on long-term capital gains for individuals generally or for a defined class of taxpayers or gains, including through a tax rate reduction, exemption or exclusion, change in applicable thresholds, change in how basis or gains are calculated, or another statutory mechanism. The qualifying change can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks will count. Changes that only defer when tax is paid, or that reduce a taxpayer's overall federal tax liability without specifically changing the taxation or calculation of long-term capital gains, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A qualifying change does not need to apply to all taxpayers or all long-term capital gains. Legislation will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" if it directly reduces or eliminates federal tax owed on long-term capital gains for individuals generally or for a defined class of taxpayers or gains, including through a tax rate reduction, exemption or exclusion, change in applicable thresholds, change in how basis or gains are calculated, or another statutory mechanism. The qualifying change can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks will count. Changes that only defer when tax is paid, or that reduce a taxpayer's overall federal tax liability without specifically changing the taxation or calculation of long-term capital gains, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$95End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 10:39 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Recent legislative outcomes and ongoing political dynamics explain the 83% implied probability that federal capital gains tax rates will not be cut by the end of 2026.** Congress passed the One Big Beautiful Bill Act in 2025, which permanently extended many Tax Cuts and Jobs Act provisions—including ordinary income rate structures and various deductions—but left long-term capital gains rates unchanged at the existing 0/15/20% brackets for 2026, with inflation-adjusted thresholds. Proposals for further reductions, such as indexing gains for inflation or expanding home-sale exclusions, have surfaced in congressional bills and recent White House discussions ahead of the midterms. However, these remain preliminary ideas without enacted legislation or firm timelines. With limited session time remaining and competing fiscal priorities, traders view successful passage of a rate cut as unlikely before the market’s resolution date.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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