Lee Shu-chuan leads the New Taipei mayoral market at 77.5% as the joint nominee of the KMT-TPP alliance following an April 2026 primary poll that defeated Huang Kuo-chang. This consolidation of opposition support against DPP candidate Su Chiao-hui, who trails in contemporaneous surveys by margins of roughly 5–12 points, underpins trader consensus on Lee’s position. Huang’s withdrawal and endorsement further narrows alternatives, reflected in his 0.4% odds. With the November 28, 2026, election still months away, the implied probabilities embed the structural advantage of unified non-DPP backing and limited recent polling shifts that could alter the race.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于李四川 78%
苏巧慧 18%
黄国昌 <1%
最新
最新
2027-06-30
李四川
78%
苏巧慧
18%
黄国昌
<1%
李四川 78%
苏巧慧 18%
黄国昌 <1%
最新
最新
2027-06-30
李四川
$1,266 交易量
78%
苏巧慧
$829 交易量
18%
黄国昌
$603 交易量
<1%
Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of New Taipei as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder Mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).Lee Shu-chuan leads the New Taipei mayoral market at 77.5% as the joint nominee of the KMT-TPP alliance following an April 2026 primary poll that defeated Huang Kuo-chang. This consolidation of opposition support against DPP candidate Su Chiao-hui, who trails in contemporaneous surveys by margins of roughly 5–12 points, underpins trader consensus on Lee’s position. Huang’s withdrawal and endorsement further narrows alternatives, reflected in his 0.4% odds. With the November 28, 2026, election still months away, the implied probabilities embed the structural advantage of unified non-DPP backing and limited recent polling shifts that could alter the race.
Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of New Taipei as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder Mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of New Taipei as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder Mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).
市场开放时间： Aug 14, 2026, 8:27 AM ET
交易量
$2,699结束日期
2026-11-28市场开放时间
Aug 14, 2026, 8:27 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of New Taipei as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder Mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).Lee Shu-chuan leads the New Taipei mayoral market at 77.5% as the joint nominee of the KMT-TPP alliance following an April 2026 primary poll that defeated Huang Kuo-chang. This consolidation of opposition support against DPP candidate Su Chiao-hui, who trails in contemporaneous surveys by margins of roughly 5–12 points, underpins trader consensus on Lee’s position. Huang’s withdrawal and endorsement further narrows alternatives, reflected in his 0.4% odds. With the November 28, 2026, election still months away, the implied probabilities embed the structural advantage of unified non-DPP backing and limited recent polling shifts that could alter the race.
Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of New Taipei as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder Mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of New Taipei as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder Mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).
交易量
$2,699结束日期
2026-11-28市场开放时间
Aug 14, 2026, 8:27 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Lee Shu-chuan leads the New Taipei mayoral market at 77.5% as the joint nominee of the KMT-TPP alliance following an April 2026 primary poll that defeated Huang Kuo-chang. This consolidation of opposition support against DPP candidate Su Chiao-hui, who trails in contemporaneous surveys by margins of roughly 5–12 points, underpins trader consensus on Lee’s position. Huang’s withdrawal and endorsement further narrows alternatives, reflected in his 0.4% odds. With the November 28, 2026, election still months away, the implied probabilities embed the structural advantage of unified non-DPP backing and limited recent polling shifts that could alter the race.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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