Arkansas's 4th congressional district remains a strongly Republican-leaning seat encompassing much of the state's rural southern and western areas. Incumbent Bruce Westerman secured the GOP nomination without opposition after the Republican primary was canceled, while Democrat James Russell advanced from his party's March primary to face him in the November general election. Westerman won reelection in 2024 by nearly 46 points in a district that has consistently supported Republican candidates by wide margins in recent cycles. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the race Safe or Solid Republican, reflecting limited fundraising and organizational activity on the Democratic side. The 94.5% implied probability for a Republican win aligns with these structural factors. A realistic shift would require an unforeseen development such as a major scandal affecting the incumbent or an unusually large national partisan swing altering turnout patterns.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$23,661 交易量
$23,661 交易量
2026-11-02
共和党
95%
民主党
5%
$23,661 交易量
$23,661 交易量
2026-11-02
共和党
$12,331 交易量
95%
民主党
$11,330 交易量
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Arkansas's 4th congressional district remains a strongly Republican-leaning seat encompassing much of the state's rural southern and western areas. Incumbent Bruce Westerman secured the GOP nomination without opposition after the Republican primary was canceled, while Democrat James Russell advanced from his party's March primary to face him in the November general election. Westerman won reelection in 2024 by nearly 46 points in a district that has consistently supported Republican candidates by wide margins in recent cycles. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the race Safe or Solid Republican, reflecting limited fundraising and organizational activity on the Democratic side. The 94.5% implied probability for a Republican win aligns with these structural factors. A realistic shift would require an unforeseen development such as a major scandal affecting the incumbent or an unusually large national partisan swing altering turnout patterns.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
交易量
$23,661结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Arkansas's 4th congressional district remains a strongly Republican-leaning seat encompassing much of the state's rural southern and western areas. Incumbent Bruce Westerman secured the GOP nomination without opposition after the Republican primary was canceled, while Democrat James Russell advanced from his party's March primary to face him in the November general election. Westerman won reelection in 2024 by nearly 46 points in a district that has consistently supported Republican candidates by wide margins in recent cycles. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the race Safe or Solid Republican, reflecting limited fundraising and organizational activity on the Democratic side. The 94.5% implied probability for a Republican win aligns with these structural factors. A realistic shift would require an unforeseen development such as a major scandal affecting the incumbent or an unusually large national partisan swing altering turnout patterns.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$23,661结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Arkansas's 4th congressional district remains a strongly Republican-leaning seat encompassing much of the state's rural southern and western areas. Incumbent Bruce Westerman secured the GOP nomination without opposition after the Republican primary was canceled, while Democrat James Russell advanced from his party's March primary to face him in the November general election. Westerman won reelection in 2024 by nearly 46 points in a district that has consistently supported Republican candidates by wide margins in recent cycles. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the race Safe or Solid Republican, reflecting limited fundraising and organizational activity on the Democratic side. The 94.5% implied probability for a Republican win aligns with these structural factors. A realistic shift would require an unforeseen development such as a major scandal affecting the incumbent or an unusually large national partisan swing altering turnout patterns.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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