Incumbent Mike Thompson holds a strong lead in the California 4th congressional district race, reflecting his long tenure since 1998, substantial fundraising edge, and endorsements from the state Democratic Party and major unions. The solidly Democratic district, rated safe or solid for the party by multiple forecasters, advanced Thompson and challenger Eric Jones from the June 2026 top-two primary after Jones edged out Republican candidates in late vote counts. Jones, a former venture capitalist mounting a progressive challenge focused on affordability and corporate influence, has self-funded heavily and issued debate invitations, yet trails significantly in implied probabilities. The November general election outcome hinges on turnout among Democratic voters and any late shifts in the redrawn district spanning Napa Valley and Sacramento suburbs.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$11,165 交易量
$11,165 交易量
2026-11-04
迈克·汤普森
69%
埃里克·琼斯
24%
$11,165 交易量
$11,165 交易量
2026-11-04
迈克·汤普森
$8,346 交易量
69%
埃里克·琼斯
$2,819 交易量
24%
This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Mike Thompson holds a strong lead in the California 4th congressional district race, reflecting his long tenure since 1998, substantial fundraising edge, and endorsements from the state Democratic Party and major unions. The solidly Democratic district, rated safe or solid for the party by multiple forecasters, advanced Thompson and challenger Eric Jones from the June 2026 top-two primary after Jones edged out Republican candidates in late vote counts. Jones, a former venture capitalist mounting a progressive challenge focused on affordability and corporate influence, has self-funded heavily and issued debate invitations, yet trails significantly in implied probabilities. The November general election outcome hinges on turnout among Democratic voters and any late shifts in the redrawn district spanning Napa Valley and Sacramento suburbs.
This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jul 6, 2026, 6:04 PM ET
交易量
$11,165结束日期
2026-11-04市场开放时间
Jul 6, 2026, 6:04 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Mike Thompson holds a strong lead in the California 4th congressional district race, reflecting his long tenure since 1998, substantial fundraising edge, and endorsements from the state Democratic Party and major unions. The solidly Democratic district, rated safe or solid for the party by multiple forecasters, advanced Thompson and challenger Eric Jones from the June 2026 top-two primary after Jones edged out Republican candidates in late vote counts. Jones, a former venture capitalist mounting a progressive challenge focused on affordability and corporate influence, has self-funded heavily and issued debate invitations, yet trails significantly in implied probabilities. The November general election outcome hinges on turnout among Democratic voters and any late shifts in the redrawn district spanning Napa Valley and Sacramento suburbs.
This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$11,165结束日期
2026-11-04市场开放时间
Jul 6, 2026, 6:04 PM ETIncumbent Mike Thompson holds a strong lead in the California 4th congressional district race, reflecting his long tenure since 1998, substantial fundraising edge, and endorsements from the state Democratic Party and major unions. The solidly Democratic district, rated safe or solid for the party by multiple forecasters, advanced Thompson and challenger Eric Jones from the June 2026 top-two primary after Jones edged out Republican candidates in late vote counts. Jones, a former venture capitalist mounting a progressive challenge focused on affordability and corporate influence, has self-funded heavily and issued debate invitations, yet trails significantly in implied probabilities. The November general election outcome hinges on turnout among Democratic voters and any late shifts in the redrawn district spanning Napa Valley and Sacramento suburbs.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题