Incumbent Democratic Representative Mike Thompson and challenger Eric Jones, both Democrats, advanced from California's June 2026 top-two primary to face each other in the November general election for the 4th congressional district. The district's strong Democratic lean and the absence of a Republican nominee have produced overwhelming trader consensus favoring a Democratic winner. Thompson's long tenure since 1999 and established voter base reinforce this positioning, while Jones's venture capital and nonprofit background has not altered the intra-party dynamic. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented reversal, such as a major candidate withdrawal, successful legal challenge to primary results, or unforeseen late developments within the remaining campaign window.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$13,671 交易量
$13,671 交易量
2026-11-02
民主党
96%
共和党
3%
$13,671 交易量
$13,671 交易量
2026-11-02
民主党
$5,915 交易量
96%
共和党
$7,756 交易量
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democratic Representative Mike Thompson and challenger Eric Jones, both Democrats, advanced from California's June 2026 top-two primary to face each other in the November general election for the 4th congressional district. The district's strong Democratic lean and the absence of a Republican nominee have produced overwhelming trader consensus favoring a Democratic winner. Thompson's long tenure since 1999 and established voter base reinforce this positioning, while Jones's venture capital and nonprofit background has not altered the intra-party dynamic. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented reversal, such as a major candidate withdrawal, successful legal challenge to primary results, or unforeseen late developments within the remaining campaign window.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
交易量
$13,671结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democratic Representative Mike Thompson and challenger Eric Jones, both Democrats, advanced from California's June 2026 top-two primary to face each other in the November general election for the 4th congressional district. The district's strong Democratic lean and the absence of a Republican nominee have produced overwhelming trader consensus favoring a Democratic winner. Thompson's long tenure since 1999 and established voter base reinforce this positioning, while Jones's venture capital and nonprofit background has not altered the intra-party dynamic. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented reversal, such as a major candidate withdrawal, successful legal challenge to primary results, or unforeseen late developments within the remaining campaign window.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$13,671结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democratic Representative Mike Thompson and challenger Eric Jones, both Democrats, advanced from California's June 2026 top-two primary to face each other in the November general election for the 4th congressional district. The district's strong Democratic lean and the absence of a Republican nominee have produced overwhelming trader consensus favoring a Democratic winner. Thompson's long tenure since 1999 and established voter base reinforce this positioning, while Jones's venture capital and nonprofit background has not altered the intra-party dynamic. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented reversal, such as a major candidate withdrawal, successful legal challenge to primary results, or unforeseen late developments within the remaining campaign window.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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