California's 6th congressional district, redrawn under recent maps and featuring Democratic voter registration advantages around 39-42%, favors the party in the November 2026 general election. The June 2026 top-two primary advanced Democrat Richard Pan to face incumbent Independent Kevin Kiley, who caucuses with Republicans after switching from his prior district. This matchup, alongside ratings from outlets classifying the seat as safe or solid Democratic, underpins trader consensus on a Democratic winner. Factors sustaining the wide gap include the district's Sacramento-area demographics and limited recent shifts in polling or endorsements. Late developments such as unexpected turnout surges favoring Kiley, national political realignments, or major campaign finance advantages could narrow the implied probability before Election Day.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$42,196 交易量
$42,196 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
94%
共和党
4%
$42,196 交易量
$42,196 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
$18,233 交易量
94%
共和党
$23,963 交易量
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 6th congressional district, redrawn under recent maps and featuring Democratic voter registration advantages around 39-42%, favors the party in the November 2026 general election. The June 2026 top-two primary advanced Democrat Richard Pan to face incumbent Independent Kevin Kiley, who caucuses with Republicans after switching from his prior district. This matchup, alongside ratings from outlets classifying the seat as safe or solid Democratic, underpins trader consensus on a Democratic winner. Factors sustaining the wide gap include the district's Sacramento-area demographics and limited recent shifts in polling or endorsements. Late developments such as unexpected turnout surges favoring Kiley, national political realignments, or major campaign finance advantages could narrow the implied probability before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
交易量
$42,196结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 6th congressional district, redrawn under recent maps and featuring Democratic voter registration advantages around 39-42%, favors the party in the November 2026 general election. The June 2026 top-two primary advanced Democrat Richard Pan to face incumbent Independent Kevin Kiley, who caucuses with Republicans after switching from his prior district. This matchup, alongside ratings from outlets classifying the seat as safe or solid Democratic, underpins trader consensus on a Democratic winner. Factors sustaining the wide gap include the district's Sacramento-area demographics and limited recent shifts in polling or endorsements. Late developments such as unexpected turnout surges favoring Kiley, national political realignments, or major campaign finance advantages could narrow the implied probability before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$42,196结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...California's 6th congressional district, redrawn under recent maps and featuring Democratic voter registration advantages around 39-42%, favors the party in the November 2026 general election. The June 2026 top-two primary advanced Democrat Richard Pan to face incumbent Independent Kevin Kiley, who caucuses with Republicans after switching from his prior district. This matchup, alongside ratings from outlets classifying the seat as safe or solid Democratic, underpins trader consensus on a Democratic winner. Factors sustaining the wide gap include the district's Sacramento-area demographics and limited recent shifts in polling or endorsements. Late developments such as unexpected turnout surges favoring Kiley, national political realignments, or major campaign finance advantages could narrow the implied probability before Election Day.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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