**Incumbent Democrat Hank Johnson’s strong renomination and the district’s entrenched partisan tilt underpin the 79.5% trader consensus for an outright first-round winner in Georgia’s November 3, 2026, general election.** Johnson captured roughly 79% of the Democratic primary vote in May against two minor challengers, while Republican Jim Duffie advanced unopposed. GA-04’s D+27 Partisan Voter Index and Johnson’s 75.6% 2024 margin indicate limited Republican visibility, modest fundraising, and no competitive polling or late disruptions capable of preventing a majority. Georgia’s majority-vote rule for congressional races triggers a runoff only if no candidate exceeds 50%; with a single credible Democratic nominee facing nominal opposition in a reliably blue Atlanta-area seat, traders price a decisive Johnson victory as the baseline outcome. Historical base rates in similarly lopsided districts further reinforce the current implied probability.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
91% 概率
最新
最新
2026-11-03
是
91% 概率
最新
最新
2026-11-03
The first round of the 2026 midterm GA-04 House election will be held on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” in the first round by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm GA-04 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the GA-04 House election.**Incumbent Democrat Hank Johnson’s strong renomination and the district’s entrenched partisan tilt underpin the 79.5% trader consensus for an outright first-round winner in Georgia’s November 3, 2026, general election.** Johnson captured roughly 79% of the Democratic primary vote in May against two minor challengers, while Republican Jim Duffie advanced unopposed. GA-04’s D+27 Partisan Voter Index and Johnson’s 75.6% 2024 margin indicate limited Republican visibility, modest fundraising, and no competitive polling or late disruptions capable of preventing a majority. Georgia’s majority-vote rule for congressional races triggers a runoff only if no candidate exceeds 50%; with a single credible Democratic nominee facing nominal opposition in a reliably blue Atlanta-area seat, traders price a decisive Johnson victory as the baseline outcome. Historical base rates in similarly lopsided districts further reinforce the current implied probability.
The first round of the 2026 midterm GA-04 House election will be held on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” in the first round by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm GA-04 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the GA-04 House election.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm GA-04 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the GA-04 House election.
市场开放时间： Aug 14, 2026, 5:20 PM ET
交易量
$20结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Aug 14, 2026, 5:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The first round of the 2026 midterm GA-04 House election will be held on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” in the first round by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm GA-04 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the GA-04 House election.**Incumbent Democrat Hank Johnson’s strong renomination and the district’s entrenched partisan tilt underpin the 79.5% trader consensus for an outright first-round winner in Georgia’s November 3, 2026, general election.** Johnson captured roughly 79% of the Democratic primary vote in May against two minor challengers, while Republican Jim Duffie advanced unopposed. GA-04’s D+27 Partisan Voter Index and Johnson’s 75.6% 2024 margin indicate limited Republican visibility, modest fundraising, and no competitive polling or late disruptions capable of preventing a majority. Georgia’s majority-vote rule for congressional races triggers a runoff only if no candidate exceeds 50%; with a single credible Democratic nominee facing nominal opposition in a reliably blue Atlanta-area seat, traders price a decisive Johnson victory as the baseline outcome. Historical base rates in similarly lopsided districts further reinforce the current implied probability.
The first round of the 2026 midterm GA-04 House election will be held on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” in the first round by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm GA-04 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the GA-04 House election.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm GA-04 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the GA-04 House election.
交易量
$20结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Aug 14, 2026, 5:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Incumbent Democrat Hank Johnson’s strong renomination and the district’s entrenched partisan tilt underpin the 79.5% trader consensus for an outright first-round winner in Georgia’s November 3, 2026, general election.** Johnson captured roughly 79% of the Democratic primary vote in May against two minor challengers, while Republican Jim Duffie advanced unopposed. GA-04’s D+27 Partisan Voter Index and Johnson’s 75.6% 2024 margin indicate limited Republican visibility, modest fundraising, and no competitive polling or late disruptions capable of preventing a majority. Georgia’s majority-vote rule for congressional races triggers a runoff only if no candidate exceeds 50%; with a single credible Democratic nominee facing nominal opposition in a reliably blue Atlanta-area seat, traders price a decisive Johnson victory as the baseline outcome. Historical base rates in similarly lopsided districts further reinforce the current implied probability.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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