Blue Origin's New Glenn heavy-lift rocket suffered a major explosion during a static fire test on May 28, 2026, destroying the booster and severely damaging its sole operational launch pad at Cape Canaveral's Launch Complex 36. The incident, traced to a BE-4 engine oxygen valve, halted all orbital operations and triggered an extensive investigation plus pad reconstruction that remained underway in mid-September. With no launches scheduled before late 2026 and realistic timelines extending beyond aggressive company targets for a year-end return to flight, traders see little near-term risk of another failure by October 31. New Shepard suborbital flights have continued without incident, but they operate from a separate Texas site and do not factor into the market.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于11% 概率
最新
最新
2026-10-31
11% 概率
最新
最新
2026-10-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any unmanned rocket owned or operated by Blue Origin explodes at any point during a launch, launch test, hot-fire test, or other testing operation between market creation and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET . Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An explosion is defined as a violent and catastrophic event resulting in the destruction of all or part of the vehicle, regardless of intent or context (e.g., a planned termination event would also count).
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Blue Origin; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Blue Origin's New Glenn heavy-lift rocket suffered a major explosion during a static fire test on May 28, 2026, destroying the booster and severely damaging its sole operational launch pad at Cape Canaveral's Launch Complex 36. The incident, traced to a BE-4 engine oxygen valve, halted all orbital operations and triggered an extensive investigation plus pad reconstruction that remained underway in mid-September. With no launches scheduled before late 2026 and realistic timelines extending beyond aggressive company targets for a year-end return to flight, traders see little near-term risk of another failure by October 31. New Shepard suborbital flights have continued without incident, but they operate from a separate Texas site and do not factor into the market.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any unmanned rocket owned or operated by Blue Origin explodes at any point during a launch, launch test, hot-fire test, or other testing operation between market creation and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET . Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An explosion is defined as a violent and catastrophic event resulting in the destruction of all or part of the vehicle, regardless of intent or context (e.g., a planned termination event would also count).
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Blue Origin; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An explosion is defined as a violent and catastrophic event resulting in the destruction of all or part of the vehicle, regardless of intent or context (e.g., a planned termination event would also count).
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Blue Origin; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Jun 1, 2026, 9:10 AM ET
交易量
$398结束日期
2026-10-31市场开放时间
Jun 1, 2026, 9:10 AM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if any unmanned rocket owned or operated by Blue Origin explodes at any point during a launch, launch test, hot-fire test, or other testing operation between market creation and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET . Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An explosion is defined as a violent and catastrophic event resulting in the destruction of all or part of the vehicle, regardless of intent or context (e.g., a planned termination event would also count).
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Blue Origin; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Blue Origin's New Glenn heavy-lift rocket suffered a major explosion during a static fire test on May 28, 2026, destroying the booster and severely damaging its sole operational launch pad at Cape Canaveral's Launch Complex 36. The incident, traced to a BE-4 engine oxygen valve, halted all orbital operations and triggered an extensive investigation plus pad reconstruction that remained underway in mid-September. With no launches scheduled before late 2026 and realistic timelines extending beyond aggressive company targets for a year-end return to flight, traders see little near-term risk of another failure by October 31. New Shepard suborbital flights have continued without incident, but they operate from a separate Texas site and do not factor into the market.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any unmanned rocket owned or operated by Blue Origin explodes at any point during a launch, launch test, hot-fire test, or other testing operation between market creation and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET . Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An explosion is defined as a violent and catastrophic event resulting in the destruction of all or part of the vehicle, regardless of intent or context (e.g., a planned termination event would also count).
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Blue Origin; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An explosion is defined as a violent and catastrophic event resulting in the destruction of all or part of the vehicle, regardless of intent or context (e.g., a planned termination event would also count).
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Blue Origin; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$398结束日期
2026-10-31市场开放时间
Jun 1, 2026, 9:10 AM ETBlue Origin's New Glenn heavy-lift rocket suffered a major explosion during a static fire test on May 28, 2026, destroying the booster and severely damaging its sole operational launch pad at Cape Canaveral's Launch Complex 36. The incident, traced to a BE-4 engine oxygen valve, halted all orbital operations and triggered an extensive investigation plus pad reconstruction that remained underway in mid-September. With no launches scheduled before late 2026 and realistic timelines extending beyond aggressive company targets for a year-end return to flight, traders see little near-term risk of another failure by October 31. New Shepard suborbital flights have continued without incident, but they operate from a separate Texas site and do not factor into the market.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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