Incumbent Democratic Representative Josh Gottheimer faces Republican nominee Sean Kirrane in New Jersey’s 5th congressional district for the November 2026 general election. Multiple nonpartisan forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic, consistent with the district’s D+2 Partisan Voter Index and Gottheimer’s established moderate record as co-chair of the Problem Solvers Caucus. Gottheimer secured the Democratic nomination without opposition in the June primary, while Kirrane advanced as the Republican nominee; the incumbent holds a substantial fundraising edge exceeding $4.7 million raised compared with under $56,000 for his opponent. Trader consensus at 95.6% probability for a Democratic hold reflects these structural advantages and the absence of competitive polling or campaign developments that would indicate a shift. Late-cycle factors such as an unforeseen scandal, health event, or unusually strong national Republican performance could narrow the margin, though historical patterns in this suburban district suggest limited realistic pathways for an upset.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$24,408 交易量
$24,408 交易量
2026-11-03
Democratic Party
96%
Republican Party
3%
$24,408 交易量
$24,408 交易量
2026-11-03
Democratic Party
$18,088 交易量
96%
Republican Party
$6,319 交易量
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democratic Representative Josh Gottheimer faces Republican nominee Sean Kirrane in New Jersey’s 5th congressional district for the November 2026 general election. Multiple nonpartisan forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic, consistent with the district’s D+2 Partisan Voter Index and Gottheimer’s established moderate record as co-chair of the Problem Solvers Caucus. Gottheimer secured the Democratic nomination without opposition in the June primary, while Kirrane advanced as the Republican nominee; the incumbent holds a substantial fundraising edge exceeding $4.7 million raised compared with under $56,000 for his opponent. Trader consensus at 95.6% probability for a Democratic hold reflects these structural advantages and the absence of competitive polling or campaign developments that would indicate a shift. Late-cycle factors such as an unforeseen scandal, health event, or unusually strong national Republican performance could narrow the margin, though historical patterns in this suburban district suggest limited realistic pathways for an upset.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市場開放時間： Dec 16, 2025, 12:24 PM ET
交易量
$24,408結束日期
2026-11-04市場開放時間
Dec 16, 2025, 12:24 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democratic Representative Josh Gottheimer faces Republican nominee Sean Kirrane in New Jersey’s 5th congressional district for the November 2026 general election. Multiple nonpartisan forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic, consistent with the district’s D+2 Partisan Voter Index and Gottheimer’s established moderate record as co-chair of the Problem Solvers Caucus. Gottheimer secured the Democratic nomination without opposition in the June primary, while Kirrane advanced as the Republican nominee; the incumbent holds a substantial fundraising edge exceeding $4.7 million raised compared with under $56,000 for his opponent. Trader consensus at 95.6% probability for a Democratic hold reflects these structural advantages and the absence of competitive polling or campaign developments that would indicate a shift. Late-cycle factors such as an unforeseen scandal, health event, or unusually strong national Republican performance could narrow the margin, though historical patterns in this suburban district suggest limited realistic pathways for an upset.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$24,408結束日期
2026-11-04市場開放時間
Dec 16, 2025, 12:24 PM ETIncumbent Democratic Representative Josh Gottheimer faces Republican nominee Sean Kirrane in New Jersey’s 5th congressional district for the November 2026 general election. Multiple nonpartisan forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic, consistent with the district’s D+2 Partisan Voter Index and Gottheimer’s established moderate record as co-chair of the Problem Solvers Caucus. Gottheimer secured the Democratic nomination without opposition in the June primary, while Kirrane advanced as the Republican nominee; the incumbent holds a substantial fundraising edge exceeding $4.7 million raised compared with under $56,000 for his opponent. Trader consensus at 95.6% probability for a Democratic hold reflects these structural advantages and the absence of competitive polling or campaign developments that would indicate a shift. Late-cycle factors such as an unforeseen scandal, health event, or unusually strong national Republican performance could narrow the margin, though historical patterns in this suburban district suggest limited realistic pathways for an upset.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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