Latest forecasts from regional meteorological models indicate a daily maximum near 35°C in Tel Aviv on August 1, supporting the 54% market-implied probability for that outcome over 34°C (25.5%). Typical August climatology features highs around 31–32°C under the influence of subtropical high pressure and minimal cloud cover, yet current conditions show slight intensification from warm advection and reduced sea-breeze moderation. Traders weigh the narrow spread between 34–36°C against observational uncertainty at official stations, where precise timing of peak heating and any late-day marine layer can shift the recorded value by 1–2°C. Updated model runs and real-time observations through midday will refine these probabilities ahead of final resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月1日特拉維夫的最高溫度?
35°C 55%
34°C 26%
36°C 13%
33°C 6%
$24,913 交易量
$24,913 交易量
31°C or below
<1%
32°C
1%
33°C
6%
34°C
26%
35°C
55%
36°C
13%
37°C
<1%
38°C
<1%
39°C
<1%
40°C
<1%
41°C or higher
<1%
35°C 55%
34°C 26%
36°C 13%
33°C 6%
$24,913 交易量
$24,913 交易量
31°C or below
<1%
32°C
1%
33°C
6%
34°C
26%
35°C
55%
36°C
13%
37°C
<1%
38°C
<1%
39°C
<1%
40°C
<1%
41°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間: Jul 30, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest forecasts from regional meteorological models indicate a daily maximum near 35°C in Tel Aviv on August 1, supporting the 54% market-implied probability for that outcome over 34°C (25.5%). Typical August climatology features highs around 31–32°C under the influence of subtropical high pressure and minimal cloud cover, yet current conditions show slight intensification from warm advection and reduced sea-breeze moderation. Traders weigh the narrow spread between 34–36°C against observational uncertainty at official stations, where precise timing of peak heating and any late-day marine layer can shift the recorded value by 1–2°C. Updated model runs and real-time observations through midday will refine these probabilities ahead of final resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於

警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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