Anthropic currently leads most independent benchmarks with its September 2026 release of Claude Fable 5.1, placing it narrowly ahead of OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra on metrics such as reasoning, agentic coding, and knowledge work. This recent shift explains the market’s tight clustering around leading labs while assigning lower implied odds to Microsoft, Google, Meta, and Chinese providers including Alibaba’s Qwen series, Moonshot’s Kimi models, and Z.ai’s GLM line. Traders appear to weigh rapid iteration cycles, benchmark specialization, and pricing against the risk that any lab could ship a superior model before the November resolution date. Key swing factors include upcoming releases, new capability demonstrations, and third-party evaluations that could reorder the frontier.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоWhich company has #1 AI model end of November? (Style Control On)
Which company has #1 AI model end of November? (Style Control On)
SpaceXAI 28%
Alibaba 26%
Meituan 26%
DeepSeek 24%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Nov 30, 2026
SpaceXAI
28%
Alibaba
26%
Meituan
26%
DeepSeek
24%
Meta
23%
Anthropic
22%
Nvidia
18%
Tencent
18%
MiniMax
17%
Microsoft
15%
Thinky
14%
Z.ai
14%
Xiaomi
14%
Mistral
14%
ByteDance
13%
Amazon
13%
OpenAI
11%
StepFun
10%
8%
Moonshot
7%
Baidu
23%
SpaceXAI 28%
Alibaba 26%
Meituan 26%
DeepSeek 24%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Nov 30, 2026
SpaceXAI
$37 Обс.
28%
Alibaba
$37 Обс.
26%
Meituan
$37 Обс.
26%
DeepSeek
$37 Обс.
24%
Meta
$37 Обс.
23%
Anthropic
$37 Обс.
22%
Nvidia
$37 Обс.
18%
Tencent
$37 Обс.
18%
MiniMax
$37 Обс.
17%
Microsoft
$65 Обс.
15%
Thinky
$37 Обс.
14%
Z.ai
$37 Обс.
14%
Xiaomi
$37 Обс.
14%
Mistral
$37 Обс.
14%
ByteDance
$37 Обс.
13%
Amazon
$37 Обс.
13%
OpenAI
$37 Обс.
11%
StepFun
$37 Обс.
10%
$37 Обс.
8%
Moonshot
$37 Обс.
7%
Baidu
$37 Обс.
23%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic currently leads most independent benchmarks with its September 2026 release of Claude Fable 5.1, placing it narrowly ahead of OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra on metrics such as reasoning, agentic coding, and knowledge work. This recent shift explains the market’s tight clustering around leading labs while assigning lower implied odds to Microsoft, Google, Meta, and Chinese providers including Alibaba’s Qwen series, Moonshot’s Kimi models, and Z.ai’s GLM line. Traders appear to weigh rapid iteration cycles, benchmark specialization, and pricing against the risk that any lab could ship a superior model before the November resolution date. Key swing factors include upcoming releases, new capability demonstrations, and third-party evaluations that could reorder the frontier.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Ринок відкрито: Sep 17, 2026, 8:11 PM ET
Обсяг
$799Дата завершення
Dec 1, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 17, 2026, 8:11 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic currently leads most independent benchmarks with its September 2026 release of Claude Fable 5.1, placing it narrowly ahead of OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra on metrics such as reasoning, agentic coding, and knowledge work. This recent shift explains the market’s tight clustering around leading labs while assigning lower implied odds to Microsoft, Google, Meta, and Chinese providers including Alibaba’s Qwen series, Moonshot’s Kimi models, and Z.ai’s GLM line. Traders appear to weigh rapid iteration cycles, benchmark specialization, and pricing against the risk that any lab could ship a superior model before the November resolution date. Key swing factors include upcoming releases, new capability demonstrations, and third-party evaluations that could reorder the frontier.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Обсяг
$799Дата завершення
Dec 1, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 17, 2026, 8:11 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic currently leads most independent benchmarks with its September 2026 release of Claude Fable 5.1, placing it narrowly ahead of OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra on metrics such as reasoning, agentic coding, and knowledge work. This recent shift explains the market’s tight clustering around leading labs while assigning lower implied odds to Microsoft, Google, Meta, and Chinese providers including Alibaba’s Qwen series, Moonshot’s Kimi models, and Z.ai’s GLM line. Traders appear to weigh rapid iteration cycles, benchmark specialization, and pricing against the risk that any lab could ship a superior model before the November resolution date. Key swing factors include upcoming releases, new capability demonstrations, and third-party evaluations that could reorder the frontier.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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