**Anthropic’s recent releases have driven trader consensus toward a strong lead in the market for the top AI model by end of September.** Claude Fable 5.1, launched September 1 with a 1M-token context window and improved adaptive thinking, tops multiple independent leaderboards including BenchAlign (82.95 supported score) and Artificial Analysis composites, outperforming OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra (released September 3 at ~81) and earlier Claude variants like Opus 5 on coding, reasoning, and agentic benchmarks such as SWE-bench Verified and Terminal-Bench. This sustained frontier positioning, backed by consistent vendor and third-party evaluations, underpins the 70% implied probability for Anthropic. OpenAI’s 19% reflects Astra’s competitive but secondary results on intelligence and coding indices, while lower odds for Google, Meta, and others align with their models trailing in the latest verified comparisons. With only weeks remaining, any additional late-September updates could still shift relative standings before resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоWhich company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On)
Which company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On)
Anthropic 72%
OpenAI 20.6%
Meta 1.9%
Google 1.2%
$82,407 Обс.
$82,407 Обс.
Sep 30, 2026
Anthropic
72%
OpenAI
21%
Meta
2%
1%
Alibaba
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Thinky
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Tencent
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Anthropic 72%
OpenAI 20.6%
Meta 1.9%
Google 1.2%
$82,407 Обс.
$82,407 Обс.
Sep 30, 2026
Anthropic
$36,128 Обс.
72%
OpenAI
$7,557 Обс.
21%
Meta
$7,819 Обс.
2%
$5,392 Обс.
1%
Alibaba
$3,643 Обс.
<1%
Moonshot
$3,122 Обс.
<1%
Z.ai
$2,652 Обс.
<1%
SpaceXAI
$1,842 Обс.
<1%
Baidu
$769 Обс.
<1%
Xiaomi
$1,250 Обс.
<1%
DeepSeek
$1,431 Обс.
<1%
ByteDance
$436 Обс.
<1%
MiniMax
$436 Обс.
<1%
Thinky
$1,313 Обс.
<1%
Meituan
$930 Обс.
<1%
Mistral
$1,554 Обс.
<1%
Amazon
$436 Обс.
<1%
Nvidia
$920 Обс.
<1%
Tencent
$2,658 Обс.
<1%
StepFun
$1,360 Обс.
<1%
Microsoft
$762 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".**Anthropic’s recent releases have driven trader consensus toward a strong lead in the market for the top AI model by end of September.** Claude Fable 5.1, launched September 1 with a 1M-token context window and improved adaptive thinking, tops multiple independent leaderboards including BenchAlign (82.95 supported score) and Artificial Analysis composites, outperforming OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra (released September 3 at ~81) and earlier Claude variants like Opus 5 on coding, reasoning, and agentic benchmarks such as SWE-bench Verified and Terminal-Bench. This sustained frontier positioning, backed by consistent vendor and third-party evaluations, underpins the 70% implied probability for Anthropic. OpenAI’s 19% reflects Astra’s competitive but secondary results on intelligence and coding indices, while lower odds for Google, Meta, and others align with their models trailing in the latest verified comparisons. With only weeks remaining, any additional late-September updates could still shift relative standings before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Ринок відкрито: Jul 20, 2026, 8:32 PM ET
Обсяг
$82,407Дата завершення
Oct 1, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 20, 2026, 8:32 PM ETДжерело вирішення
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overallВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".**Anthropic’s recent releases have driven trader consensus toward a strong lead in the market for the top AI model by end of September.** Claude Fable 5.1, launched September 1 with a 1M-token context window and improved adaptive thinking, tops multiple independent leaderboards including BenchAlign (82.95 supported score) and Artificial Analysis composites, outperforming OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra (released September 3 at ~81) and earlier Claude variants like Opus 5 on coding, reasoning, and agentic benchmarks such as SWE-bench Verified and Terminal-Bench. This sustained frontier positioning, backed by consistent vendor and third-party evaluations, underpins the 70% implied probability for Anthropic. OpenAI’s 19% reflects Astra’s competitive but secondary results on intelligence and coding indices, while lower odds for Google, Meta, and others align with their models trailing in the latest verified comparisons. With only weeks remaining, any additional late-September updates could still shift relative standings before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Обсяг
$82,407Дата завершення
Oct 1, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 20, 2026, 8:32 PM ETДжерело вирішення
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overallВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...**Anthropic’s recent releases have driven trader consensus toward a strong lead in the market for the top AI model by end of September.** Claude Fable 5.1, launched September 1 with a 1M-token context window and improved adaptive thinking, tops multiple independent leaderboards including BenchAlign (82.95 supported score) and Artificial Analysis composites, outperforming OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra (released September 3 at ~81) and earlier Claude variants like Opus 5 on coding, reasoning, and agentic benchmarks such as SWE-bench Verified and Terminal-Bench. This sustained frontier positioning, backed by consistent vendor and third-party evaluations, underpins the 70% implied probability for Anthropic. OpenAI’s 19% reflects Astra’s competitive but secondary results on intelligence and coding indices, while lower odds for Google, Meta, and others align with their models trailing in the latest verified comparisons. With only weeks remaining, any additional late-September updates could still shift relative standings before resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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