Recent rumors of internal routing tests and a possible Claude Opus 5.2 refresh, following the September 1 launch of Fable 5.1, have concentrated trader attention on mid-to-late September dates. Anthropic’s recent cadence—Opus 5 arriving 24 days after Sonnet 5—combined with ongoing competitive pressure from OpenAI and Google models, supports expectations for a near-term update focused on coding, agentic reliability, and lighter safeguards. The tight spread across September 22–29 outcomes reflects uncertainty over exact timing, with no official announcement or model card yet, while the 10% probability assigned to no release by September 30 accounts for potential safety reviews or strategic delays typical in frontier large language model deployments.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоNext Claude Opus released on...?
Next Claude Opus released on...?
September 28 14%
September 23 13%
September 24 12%
September 25 12%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 16, 2026
On or prior to September 16
1%
September 17
7%
September 18
6%
September 19
1%
September 20
5%
September 21
7%
September 22
10%
September 23
13%
September 24
12%
September 25
12%
September 26
5%
September 27
5%
September 28
14%
September 29
12%
September 30
11%
No release by September 30
10%
September 28 14%
September 23 13%
September 24 12%
September 25 12%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 16, 2026
On or prior to September 16
$149 Обс.
1%
September 17
$397 Обс.
7%
September 18
$0 Обс.
6%
September 19
$447 Обс.
1%
September 20
$468 Обс.
5%
September 21
$0 Обс.
7%
September 22
$0 Обс.
10%
September 23
$0 Обс.
13%
September 24
$0 Обс.
12%
September 25
$0 Обс.
12%
September 26
$447 Обс.
5%
September 27
$447 Обс.
5%
September 28
$0 Обс.
14%
September 29
$0 Обс.
12%
September 30
$0 Обс.
11%
No release by September 30
$0 Обс.
10%
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public.
Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 5.1, Claude Opus 5.5, Opus 6, or any other Opus variants released after market creation. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic. Claude Opus 5, released on July 24, 2026, and any snapshot, rollout, or re-release of it will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Recent rumors of internal routing tests and a possible Claude Opus 5.2 refresh, following the September 1 launch of Fable 5.1, have concentrated trader attention on mid-to-late September dates. Anthropic’s recent cadence—Opus 5 arriving 24 days after Sonnet 5—combined with ongoing competitive pressure from OpenAI and Google models, supports expectations for a near-term update focused on coding, agentic reliability, and lighter safeguards. The tight spread across September 22–29 outcomes reflects uncertainty over exact timing, with no official announcement or model card yet, while the 10% probability assigned to no release by September 30 accounts for potential safety reviews or strategic delays typical in frontier large language model deployments.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public.
Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 5.1, Claude Opus 5.5, Opus 6, or any other Opus variants released after market creation. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic. Claude Opus 5, released on July 24, 2026, and any snapshot, rollout, or re-release of it will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 5.1, Claude Opus 5.5, Opus 6, or any other Opus variants released after market creation. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic. Claude Opus 5, released on July 24, 2026, and any snapshot, rollout, or re-release of it will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Ринок відкрито: Sep 16, 2026, 6:24 PM ET
Обсяг
$2,354Дата завершення
Oct 1, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 16, 2026, 6:24 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public.
Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 5.1, Claude Opus 5.5, Opus 6, or any other Opus variants released after market creation. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic. Claude Opus 5, released on July 24, 2026, and any snapshot, rollout, or re-release of it will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Recent rumors of internal routing tests and a possible Claude Opus 5.2 refresh, following the September 1 launch of Fable 5.1, have concentrated trader attention on mid-to-late September dates. Anthropic’s recent cadence—Opus 5 arriving 24 days after Sonnet 5—combined with ongoing competitive pressure from OpenAI and Google models, supports expectations for a near-term update focused on coding, agentic reliability, and lighter safeguards. The tight spread across September 22–29 outcomes reflects uncertainty over exact timing, with no official announcement or model card yet, while the 10% probability assigned to no release by September 30 accounts for potential safety reviews or strategic delays typical in frontier large language model deployments.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public.
Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 5.1, Claude Opus 5.5, Opus 6, or any other Opus variants released after market creation. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic. Claude Opus 5, released on July 24, 2026, and any snapshot, rollout, or re-release of it will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 5.1, Claude Opus 5.5, Opus 6, or any other Opus variants released after market creation. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic. Claude Opus 5, released on July 24, 2026, and any snapshot, rollout, or re-release of it will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Обсяг
$2,354Дата завершення
Oct 1, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 16, 2026, 6:24 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Recent rumors of internal routing tests and a possible Claude Opus 5.2 refresh, following the September 1 launch of Fable 5.1, have concentrated trader attention on mid-to-late September dates. Anthropic’s recent cadence—Opus 5 arriving 24 days after Sonnet 5—combined with ongoing competitive pressure from OpenAI and Google models, supports expectations for a near-term update focused on coding, agentic reliability, and lighter safeguards. The tight spread across September 22–29 outcomes reflects uncertainty over exact timing, with no official announcement or model card yet, while the 10% probability assigned to no release by September 30 accounts for potential safety reviews or strategic delays typical in frontier large language model deployments.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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