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icon for Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by September 30?
Технологія·AI

Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by September 30?

icon for Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by September 30?
Технологія·AI

Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by September 30?

Oct 1

Jan 1, 2027

Oct 1

Jan 1, 2027

$187,717 Обс.

Sep 30, 2026
Polymarket

$187,717 Обс.

Polymarket

1520

$62,120 Обс.

95%

1530

$22,010 Обс.

5%

1540

$10,967 Обс.

7%

1550

$11,877 Обс.

2%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".Recent Anthropic Claude variants, including Fable 5 and Opus 5 models, currently lead the Arena.ai overall leaderboard near 1505-1508 Elo, reflecting incremental gains from post-training refinements and strong human preference signals in writing, reasoning, and multi-turn tasks. OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra launch on September 3 boosted specialized code and agent arenas but has not yet displaced the frontier in the main text overall metric, while Google Gemini 3.7/3.8 Flash updates and Alibaba Qwen3.8-Max iterations added competitive pressure in targeted categories. With only weeks remaining until September 30, trader focus centers on whether any lab can deliver a timely high-impact release or fine-tune that pushes the top score across the resolution threshold amid tight confidence intervals and rapid AutoEval integration on Arena.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Обсяг
$187,717
Дата завершення
Oct 1, 2026
Ринок відкрито
Apr 2, 2026, 6:04 PM ET

Вирішувач

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".Recent Anthropic Claude variants, including Fable 5 and Opus 5 models, currently lead the Arena.ai overall leaderboard near 1505-1508 Elo, reflecting incremental gains from post-training refinements and strong human preference signals in writing, reasoning, and multi-turn tasks. OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra launch on September 3 boosted specialized code and agent arenas but has not yet displaced the frontier in the main text overall metric, while Google Gemini 3.7/3.8 Flash updates and Alibaba Qwen3.8-Max iterations added competitive pressure in targeted categories. With only weeks remaining until September 30, trader focus centers on whether any lab can deliver a timely high-impact release or fine-tune that pushes the top score across the resolution threshold amid tight confidence intervals and rapid AutoEval integration on Arena.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Обсяг
$187,717
Дата завершення
Oct 1, 2026
Ринок відкрито
Apr 2, 2026, 6:04 PM ET

Вирішувач

0x65070BE91...

Пов'язане

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Часті запитання

«Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by September 30?» — це ринок прогнозів на Polymarket з 5 можливими результатами, де трейдери купують і продають акції залежно від того, що, на їхню думку, станеться. Поточний лідер — «1510» з 100%, далі «1520» з 95%. Ціни відображають краудсорсингові ймовірності в реальному часі. Акції правильного результату погашаються по $1 кожна при вирішенні ринку.

Станом на сьогодні, «Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by September 30?» згенерував $187.7K загального обсягу торгів з моменту запуску ринку Apr 2, 2026. Цей рівень торгової активності відображає сильну залученість спільноти Polymarket та забезпечує, що поточні шанси базуються на глибокому пулі учасників ринку. Ви можете відстежувати рухи цін наживо та торгувати будь-яким результатом прямо на цій сторінці.

Щоб торгувати на «Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by September 30?», перегляньте 5 доступних результатів на цій сторінці. Кожен результат відображає поточну ціну — ймовірність ринку. Оберіть результат, оберіть «Так» чи «Ні», введіть суму та натисніть «Торгувати». Якщо ваш вибір правильний при вирішенні, акції «Так» виплачують $1. Якщо ні — $0. Ви також можете продати акції в будь-який час до вирішення.

Поточний фаворит для «Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by September 30?» — «1510» з 100%. Наступний — «1520» з 95%. Ці шанси оновлюються в реальному часі, коли трейдери купують і продають акції. Слідкуйте за змінами шансів з появою нової інформації.

Правила вирішення для «Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by September 30?» точно визначають, що має статися для оголошення переможця — включаючи офіційні джерела даних. Ви можете переглянути повні критерії вирішення в розділі «Правила» на цій сторінці. Рекомендуємо уважно прочитати правила перед торгівлею.