Traders see a tightly contested field for second place in Text Arena Math by end-October 2026, with multiple labs clustered near 50% implied probability amid rapid model iteration. Anthropic’s Claude Opus and Fable variants currently lead the arena’s math-specific Elo rankings through superior multi-step reasoning, yet OpenAI’s GPT-5 family, Google’s Gemini Deep Think releases, and Chinese labs including DeepSeek and Z.ai have posted competitive benchmark gains on AIME-style and PolyMath evaluations. Key swing factors include upcoming model drops, context-window expansions, and post-training refinements that could reorder the leaderboard before resolution. The skin-in-the-game consensus reflects both demonstrated math capabilities on live votes and the acknowledged risk of sudden capability jumps or training runs shifting relative standings.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоSecond-best Text Arena Math AI Lab end of October?
Second-best Text Arena Math AI Lab end of October?
Z.ai 11%
MiniMax 9%
StepFun 8%
Google 7%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Oct 31, 2026
Z.ai
11%
MiniMax
9%
StepFun
8%
7%
Meta
7%
Meituan
7%
Amazon
7%
ByteDance
7%
Alibaba
7%
Anthropic
7%
Moonshot
7%
SpaceXAI
6%
OpenAI
6%
Baidu
6%
Microsoft
6%
Xiaomi
5%
DeepSeek
5%
Tencent
4%
Mistral
3%
Nvidia
3%
Z.ai 11%
MiniMax 9%
StepFun 8%
Google 7%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Oct 31, 2026
Z.ai
$27 Обс.
11%
MiniMax
$32 Обс.
9%
StepFun
$27 Обс.
8%
$27 Обс.
7%
Meta
$32 Обс.
7%
Meituan
$77 Обс.
7%
Amazon
$96 Обс.
7%
ByteDance
$60 Обс.
7%
Alibaba
$62 Обс.
7%
Anthropic
$62 Обс.
7%
Moonshot
$32 Обс.
7%
SpaceXAI
$27 Обс.
6%
OpenAI
$22 Обс.
6%
Baidu
$32 Обс.
6%
Microsoft
$207 Обс.
6%
Xiaomi
$32 Обс.
5%
DeepSeek
$27 Обс.
5%
Tencent
$100 Обс.
4%
Mistral
$62 Обс.
3%
Nvidia
$154 Обс.
3%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Traders see a tightly contested field for second place in Text Arena Math by end-October 2026, with multiple labs clustered near 50% implied probability amid rapid model iteration. Anthropic’s Claude Opus and Fable variants currently lead the arena’s math-specific Elo rankings through superior multi-step reasoning, yet OpenAI’s GPT-5 family, Google’s Gemini Deep Think releases, and Chinese labs including DeepSeek and Z.ai have posted competitive benchmark gains on AIME-style and PolyMath evaluations. Key swing factors include upcoming model drops, context-window expansions, and post-training refinements that could reorder the leaderboard before resolution. The skin-in-the-game consensus reflects both demonstrated math capabilities on live votes and the acknowledged risk of sudden capability jumps or training runs shifting relative standings.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Ринок відкрито: Aug 12, 2026, 7:53 PM ET
Обсяг
$1,195Дата завершення
Oct 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 12, 2026, 7:53 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Traders see a tightly contested field for second place in Text Arena Math by end-October 2026, with multiple labs clustered near 50% implied probability amid rapid model iteration. Anthropic’s Claude Opus and Fable variants currently lead the arena’s math-specific Elo rankings through superior multi-step reasoning, yet OpenAI’s GPT-5 family, Google’s Gemini Deep Think releases, and Chinese labs including DeepSeek and Z.ai have posted competitive benchmark gains on AIME-style and PolyMath evaluations. Key swing factors include upcoming model drops, context-window expansions, and post-training refinements that could reorder the leaderboard before resolution. The skin-in-the-game consensus reflects both demonstrated math capabilities on live votes and the acknowledged risk of sudden capability jumps or training runs shifting relative standings.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Обсяг
$1,195Дата завершення
Oct 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 12, 2026, 7:53 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders see a tightly contested field for second place in Text Arena Math by end-October 2026, with multiple labs clustered near 50% implied probability amid rapid model iteration. Anthropic’s Claude Opus and Fable variants currently lead the arena’s math-specific Elo rankings through superior multi-step reasoning, yet OpenAI’s GPT-5 family, Google’s Gemini Deep Think releases, and Chinese labs including DeepSeek and Z.ai have posted competitive benchmark gains on AIME-style and PolyMath evaluations. Key swing factors include upcoming model drops, context-window expansions, and post-training refinements that could reorder the leaderboard before resolution. The skin-in-the-game consensus reflects both demonstrated math capabilities on live votes and the acknowledged risk of sudden capability jumps or training runs shifting relative standings.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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