ByteDance leads trader sentiment for the #2 AI lab by end of October at 19.5% implied probability, closely trailed by Anthropic at 19%, Nvidia at 17%, and Google at 16.5%, underscoring a fragmented race behind presumed frontrunner OpenAI. Recent developments driving this include ByteDance's pre-training of a 10-trillion-parameter model targeting Anthropic's Mythos-scale capabilities, Anthropic's July Claude Opus 5 release delivering top scores on benchmarks like Frontier-Bench and ARC-AGI with improved agentic features, and Nvidia's ongoing hardware ecosystem dominance amid multiple labs' compute demands. Chinese labs such as DeepSeek and Alibaba further compress the field through efficient open-weight releases and developer adoption, while U.S. contenders face typical timeline slippage risks. Key upcoming catalysts include additional model drops and benchmark updates that could shift the tightly matched probabilities before resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено#2 AI Lab end of October? (Style Control On)
#2 AI Lab end of October? (Style Control On)
ByteDance 20%
Anthropic 18%
Google 17%
SpaceXAI 14%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Oct 31, 2026
ByteDance
20%
Anthropic
18%
17%
SpaceXAI
14%
Meta
13%
Baidu
13%
Tencent
12%
Moonshot
12%
DeepSeek
11%
MiniMax
10%
Xiaomi
9%
Alibaba
9%
Nvidia
9%
OpenAI
6%
Meituan
5%
StepFun
5%
Mistral
4%
Amazon
4%
Z.ai
4%
Thinky
4%
Microsoft
3%
ByteDance 20%
Anthropic 18%
Google 17%
SpaceXAI 14%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Oct 31, 2026
ByteDance
$0 Обс.
20%
Anthropic
$0 Обс.
18%
$0 Обс.
17%
SpaceXAI
$33 Обс.
14%
Meta
$0 Обс.
13%
Baidu
$0 Обс.
13%
Tencent
$0 Обс.
12%
Moonshot
$0 Обс.
12%
DeepSeek
$33 Обс.
11%
MiniMax
$39 Обс.
10%
Xiaomi
$33 Обс.
9%
Alibaba
$33 Обс.
9%
Nvidia
$32 Обс.
9%
OpenAI
$33 Обс.
6%
Meituan
$42 Обс.
5%
StepFun
$42 Обс.
5%
Mistral
$59 Обс.
4%
Amazon
$39 Обс.
4%
Z.ai
$66 Обс.
4%
Thinky
$70 Обс.
4%
Microsoft
$62 Обс.
3%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".ByteDance leads trader sentiment for the #2 AI lab by end of October at 19.5% implied probability, closely trailed by Anthropic at 19%, Nvidia at 17%, and Google at 16.5%, underscoring a fragmented race behind presumed frontrunner OpenAI. Recent developments driving this include ByteDance's pre-training of a 10-trillion-parameter model targeting Anthropic's Mythos-scale capabilities, Anthropic's July Claude Opus 5 release delivering top scores on benchmarks like Frontier-Bench and ARC-AGI with improved agentic features, and Nvidia's ongoing hardware ecosystem dominance amid multiple labs' compute demands. Chinese labs such as DeepSeek and Alibaba further compress the field through efficient open-weight releases and developer adoption, while U.S. contenders face typical timeline slippage risks. Key upcoming catalysts include additional model drops and benchmark updates that could shift the tightly matched probabilities before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Ринок відкрито: Aug 12, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
Обсяг
$617Дата завершення
Oct 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 12, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".ByteDance leads trader sentiment for the #2 AI lab by end of October at 19.5% implied probability, closely trailed by Anthropic at 19%, Nvidia at 17%, and Google at 16.5%, underscoring a fragmented race behind presumed frontrunner OpenAI. Recent developments driving this include ByteDance's pre-training of a 10-trillion-parameter model targeting Anthropic's Mythos-scale capabilities, Anthropic's July Claude Opus 5 release delivering top scores on benchmarks like Frontier-Bench and ARC-AGI with improved agentic features, and Nvidia's ongoing hardware ecosystem dominance amid multiple labs' compute demands. Chinese labs such as DeepSeek and Alibaba further compress the field through efficient open-weight releases and developer adoption, while U.S. contenders face typical timeline slippage risks. Key upcoming catalysts include additional model drops and benchmark updates that could shift the tightly matched probabilities before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Обсяг
$617Дата завершення
Oct 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 12, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...ByteDance leads trader sentiment for the #2 AI lab by end of October at 19.5% implied probability, closely trailed by Anthropic at 19%, Nvidia at 17%, and Google at 16.5%, underscoring a fragmented race behind presumed frontrunner OpenAI. Recent developments driving this include ByteDance's pre-training of a 10-trillion-parameter model targeting Anthropic's Mythos-scale capabilities, Anthropic's July Claude Opus 5 release delivering top scores on benchmarks like Frontier-Bench and ARC-AGI with improved agentic features, and Nvidia's ongoing hardware ecosystem dominance amid multiple labs' compute demands. Chinese labs such as DeepSeek and Alibaba further compress the field through efficient open-weight releases and developer adoption, while U.S. contenders face typical timeline slippage risks. Key upcoming catalysts include additional model drops and benchmark updates that could shift the tightly matched probabilities before resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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