The closely matched market-implied odds around 24% for Moonshot, Baidu, MiniMax, and DeepSeek reflect intense competition in the race for second-place AI lab positioning by late November, with no single frontrunner emerging from recent model releases and benchmark results. Chinese labs have gained ground through rapid iteration on large language models, cost-efficient training, and specialized capabilities that challenge established players like Anthropic and Google. Western labs such as OpenAI and Meta trail at lower probabilities due to slower visible progress on key metrics and regulatory scrutiny. Key swing factors include upcoming developer conferences, new capability demonstrations, and any shifts in user adoption or enterprise partnerships that could alter the competitive landscape before resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено#2 AI Lab end of November? (Style Control On)
#2 AI Lab end of November? (Style Control On)
DeepSeek 24%
Meituan 24%
Moonshot 22%
Tencent 21%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Nov 30, 2026
DeepSeek
24%
Meituan
24%
Moonshot
22%
Tencent
21%
StepFun
21%
Mistral
20%
Z.ai
15%
Alibaba
13%
Baidu
16%
Meta
16%
MiniMax
16%
Anthropic
15%
Thinky
14%
OpenAI
14%
Xiaomi
13%
ByteDance
10%
Nvidia
10%
Microsoft
10%
Amazon
8%
SpaceXAI
8%
9%
DeepSeek 24%
Meituan 24%
Moonshot 22%
Tencent 21%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Nov 30, 2026
DeepSeek
$0 Обс.
24%
Meituan
$0 Обс.
24%
Moonshot
$0 Обс.
22%
Tencent
$0 Обс.
21%
StepFun
$0 Обс.
21%
Mistral
$0 Обс.
20%
Z.ai
$25 Обс.
15%
Alibaba
$26 Обс.
13%
Baidu
$0 Обс.
16%
Meta
$0 Обс.
16%
MiniMax
$0 Обс.
16%
Anthropic
$0 Обс.
15%
Thinky
$0 Обс.
14%
OpenAI
$0 Обс.
14%
Xiaomi
$0 Обс.
13%
ByteDance
$0 Обс.
10%
Nvidia
$0 Обс.
10%
Microsoft
$0 Обс.
10%
Amazon
$0 Обс.
8%
SpaceXAI
$0 Обс.
8%
$20 Обс.
9%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".The closely matched market-implied odds around 24% for Moonshot, Baidu, MiniMax, and DeepSeek reflect intense competition in the race for second-place AI lab positioning by late November, with no single frontrunner emerging from recent model releases and benchmark results. Chinese labs have gained ground through rapid iteration on large language models, cost-efficient training, and specialized capabilities that challenge established players like Anthropic and Google. Western labs such as OpenAI and Meta trail at lower probabilities due to slower visible progress on key metrics and regulatory scrutiny. Key swing factors include upcoming developer conferences, new capability demonstrations, and any shifts in user adoption or enterprise partnerships that could alter the competitive landscape before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Ринок відкрито: Sep 17, 2026, 8:11 PM ET
Обсяг
$71Дата завершення
Dec 1, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 17, 2026, 8:11 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".The closely matched market-implied odds around 24% for Moonshot, Baidu, MiniMax, and DeepSeek reflect intense competition in the race for second-place AI lab positioning by late November, with no single frontrunner emerging from recent model releases and benchmark results. Chinese labs have gained ground through rapid iteration on large language models, cost-efficient training, and specialized capabilities that challenge established players like Anthropic and Google. Western labs such as OpenAI and Meta trail at lower probabilities due to slower visible progress on key metrics and regulatory scrutiny. Key swing factors include upcoming developer conferences, new capability demonstrations, and any shifts in user adoption or enterprise partnerships that could alter the competitive landscape before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Обсяг
$71Дата завершення
Dec 1, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 17, 2026, 8:11 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...The closely matched market-implied odds around 24% for Moonshot, Baidu, MiniMax, and DeepSeek reflect intense competition in the race for second-place AI lab positioning by late November, with no single frontrunner emerging from recent model releases and benchmark results. Chinese labs have gained ground through rapid iteration on large language models, cost-efficient training, and specialized capabilities that challenge established players like Anthropic and Google. Western labs such as OpenAI and Meta trail at lower probabilities due to slower visible progress on key metrics and regulatory scrutiny. Key swing factors include upcoming developer conferences, new capability demonstrations, and any shifts in user adoption or enterprise partnerships that could alter the competitive landscape before resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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