Anthropic's Claude Fable 5 and Opus 4/5 variants currently anchor the top of the Text Arena math leaderboard through superior chain-of-thought reasoning on competition problems, leaving Google as the primary contender for second place with Gemini 3.x models posting competitive Elo ratings near 1522. Trader consensus around 38% implied probability for Google reflects recent Gemini flash and pro updates that narrowed gaps on math-specific votes, while OpenAI's GPT-5.5 series trails at roughly 29.5% due to stronger results on pure benchmarks like FrontierMath than on human-preference arena tasks. DeepSeek, Z.ai, and Moonshot models add pressure through efficient open-weight releases that challenge closed labs on specific math subsets. Upcoming model drops and continued arena voting through November will likely determine whether Google's multimodal scaling or OpenAI's research-level math focus shifts the ordering before resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоSecond-best Text Arena Math AI Lab end of November?
Second-best Text Arena Math AI Lab end of November?
DeepSeek 37%
OpenAI 29%
Google 23%
Microsoft 22%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Nov 30, 2026
DeepSeek
37%
OpenAI
29%
23%
Microsoft
22%
Xiaomi
21%
Z.ai
21%
Anthropic
20%
Meta
16%
ByteDance
15%
Meituan
14%
SpaceXAI
14%
MiniMax
14%
Alibaba
13%
Baidu
13%
StepFun
12%
Thinky
12%
Moonshot
11%
Tencent
11%
Amazon
10%
Mistral
10%
Nvidia
9%
DeepSeek 37%
OpenAI 29%
Google 23%
Microsoft 22%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Nov 30, 2026
DeepSeek
$0 Обс.
37%
OpenAI
$0 Обс.
29%
$0 Обс.
23%
Microsoft
$44 Обс.
22%
Xiaomi
$0 Обс.
21%
Z.ai
$0 Обс.
21%
Anthropic
$0 Обс.
20%
Meta
$0 Обс.
16%
ByteDance
$0 Обс.
15%
Meituan
$0 Обс.
14%
SpaceXAI
$0 Обс.
14%
MiniMax
$0 Обс.
14%
Alibaba
$0 Обс.
13%
Baidu
$0 Обс.
13%
StepFun
$0 Обс.
12%
Thinky
$0 Обс.
12%
Moonshot
$0 Обс.
11%
Tencent
$0 Обс.
11%
Amazon
$0 Обс.
10%
Mistral
$0 Обс.
10%
Nvidia
$0 Обс.
9%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic's Claude Fable 5 and Opus 4/5 variants currently anchor the top of the Text Arena math leaderboard through superior chain-of-thought reasoning on competition problems, leaving Google as the primary contender for second place with Gemini 3.x models posting competitive Elo ratings near 1522. Trader consensus around 38% implied probability for Google reflects recent Gemini flash and pro updates that narrowed gaps on math-specific votes, while OpenAI's GPT-5.5 series trails at roughly 29.5% due to stronger results on pure benchmarks like FrontierMath than on human-preference arena tasks. DeepSeek, Z.ai, and Moonshot models add pressure through efficient open-weight releases that challenge closed labs on specific math subsets. Upcoming model drops and continued arena voting through November will likely determine whether Google's multimodal scaling or OpenAI's research-level math focus shifts the ordering before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Ринок відкрито: Sep 17, 2026, 8:05 PM ET
Обсяг
$44Дата завершення
Dec 1, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 17, 2026, 8:05 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic's Claude Fable 5 and Opus 4/5 variants currently anchor the top of the Text Arena math leaderboard through superior chain-of-thought reasoning on competition problems, leaving Google as the primary contender for second place with Gemini 3.x models posting competitive Elo ratings near 1522. Trader consensus around 38% implied probability for Google reflects recent Gemini flash and pro updates that narrowed gaps on math-specific votes, while OpenAI's GPT-5.5 series trails at roughly 29.5% due to stronger results on pure benchmarks like FrontierMath than on human-preference arena tasks. DeepSeek, Z.ai, and Moonshot models add pressure through efficient open-weight releases that challenge closed labs on specific math subsets. Upcoming model drops and continued arena voting through November will likely determine whether Google's multimodal scaling or OpenAI's research-level math focus shifts the ordering before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Обсяг
$44Дата завершення
Dec 1, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 17, 2026, 8:05 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic's Claude Fable 5 and Opus 4/5 variants currently anchor the top of the Text Arena math leaderboard through superior chain-of-thought reasoning on competition problems, leaving Google as the primary contender for second place with Gemini 3.x models posting competitive Elo ratings near 1522. Trader consensus around 38% implied probability for Google reflects recent Gemini flash and pro updates that narrowed gaps on math-specific votes, while OpenAI's GPT-5.5 series trails at roughly 29.5% due to stronger results on pure benchmarks like FrontierMath than on human-preference arena tasks. DeepSeek, Z.ai, and Moonshot models add pressure through efficient open-weight releases that challenge closed labs on specific math subsets. Upcoming model drops and continued arena voting through November will likely determine whether Google's multimodal scaling or OpenAI's research-level math focus shifts the ordering before resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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