Recent model releases have tightened the race for third place on style-controlled leaderboards such as LMSYS Arena, where Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra currently occupy the top two spots while Google, Moonshot, and Alibaba trail. Trader sentiment reflects this parity, with no lab exceeding 28% implied probability amid rapid iteration cycles and benchmark volatility. Chinese labs continue closing capability gaps on reasoning and coding tasks, yet U.S. frontier models retain edges in human-preference voting after style adjustments. Key catalysts through November include potential flagship updates, new benchmark releases, and any shifts in inference speed or context handling that could reorder the middle tier.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено#3 AI Lab end of November? (Style Control On)
#3 AI Lab end of November? (Style Control On)
Microsoft 25%
Meta 18%
Mistral 15%
Tencent 15%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Nov 30, 2026
Microsoft
25%
Meta
18%
Mistral
15%
Tencent
15%
DeepSeek
12%
12%
MiniMax
12%
StepFun
11%
Moonshot
10%
Baidu
9%
Alibaba
9%
SpaceXAI
9%
Z.ai
9%
Thinky
9%
Nvidia
9%
Anthropic
8%
ByteDance
7%
Amazon
7%
OpenAI
7%
Meituan
7%
Xiaomi
14%
Microsoft 25%
Meta 18%
Mistral 15%
Tencent 15%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Nov 30, 2026
Microsoft
$45 Обс.
25%
Meta
$45 Обс.
18%
Mistral
$45 Обс.
15%
Tencent
$45 Обс.
15%
DeepSeek
$45 Обс.
12%
$51 Обс.
12%
MiniMax
$45 Обс.
12%
StepFun
$45 Обс.
11%
Moonshot
$45 Обс.
10%
Baidu
$45 Обс.
9%
Alibaba
$45 Обс.
9%
SpaceXAI
$48 Обс.
9%
Z.ai
$45 Обс.
9%
Thinky
$45 Обс.
9%
Nvidia
$45 Обс.
9%
Anthropic
$45 Обс.
8%
ByteDance
$45 Обс.
7%
Amazon
$45 Обс.
7%
OpenAI
$45 Обс.
7%
Meituan
$45 Обс.
7%
Xiaomi
$58 Обс.
14%
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Recent model releases have tightened the race for third place on style-controlled leaderboards such as LMSYS Arena, where Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra currently occupy the top two spots while Google, Moonshot, and Alibaba trail. Trader sentiment reflects this parity, with no lab exceeding 28% implied probability amid rapid iteration cycles and benchmark volatility. Chinese labs continue closing capability gaps on reasoning and coding tasks, yet U.S. frontier models retain edges in human-preference voting after style adjustments. Key catalysts through November include potential flagship updates, new benchmark releases, and any shifts in inference speed or context handling that could reorder the middle tier.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Ринок відкрито: Sep 17, 2026, 8:11 PM ET
Обсяг
$975Дата завершення
Dec 1, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 17, 2026, 8:11 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Recent model releases have tightened the race for third place on style-controlled leaderboards such as LMSYS Arena, where Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra currently occupy the top two spots while Google, Moonshot, and Alibaba trail. Trader sentiment reflects this parity, with no lab exceeding 28% implied probability amid rapid iteration cycles and benchmark volatility. Chinese labs continue closing capability gaps on reasoning and coding tasks, yet U.S. frontier models retain edges in human-preference voting after style adjustments. Key catalysts through November include potential flagship updates, new benchmark releases, and any shifts in inference speed or context handling that could reorder the middle tier.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Обсяг
$975Дата завершення
Dec 1, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 17, 2026, 8:11 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Recent model releases have tightened the race for third place on style-controlled leaderboards such as LMSYS Arena, where Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra currently occupy the top two spots while Google, Moonshot, and Alibaba trail. Trader sentiment reflects this parity, with no lab exceeding 28% implied probability amid rapid iteration cycles and benchmark volatility. Chinese labs continue closing capability gaps on reasoning and coding tasks, yet U.S. frontier models retain edges in human-preference voting after style adjustments. Key catalysts through November include potential flagship updates, new benchmark releases, and any shifts in inference speed or context handling that could reorder the middle tier.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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