Anthropic leads trader sentiment at 59% implied probability for the best AI model by end of November, driven by Claude Fable 5.1's September 1 release topping independent benchmarks such as BenchAlign v5 at 84.7 and strong SWE-bench coding results ahead of OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra. Recent frontier releases from OpenAI, Google, and others have narrowed gaps on context windows and agentic tasks, yet Anthropic's consistent leadership in verifiable evaluations like Terminal-Bench sustains its edge. With probabilities clustered near 50% for many contenders, traders weigh rapid iteration cycles, pricing shifts, and potential regulatory scrutiny on advanced capabilities as key swing factors before November resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоWhich company has the best AI model end of November?
Which company has the best AI model end of November?
Anthropic 59%
Z.ai 39%
Alibaba 34%
MiniMax 23%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Nov 30, 2026
Anthropic
59%
Z.ai
39%
Alibaba
34%
MiniMax
23%
DeepSeek
22%
Mistral
21%
Meituan
20%
OpenAI
19%
Tencent
19%
Moonshot
18%
14%
Amazon
12%
Xiaomi
10%
SpaceXAI
10%
Meta
10%
Microsoft
9%
Baidu
9%
Nvidia
8%
StepFun
9%
Thinky
4%
ByteDance
9%
Anthropic 59%
Z.ai 39%
Alibaba 34%
MiniMax 23%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Nov 30, 2026
Anthropic
$81 Обс.
59%
Z.ai
$50 Обс.
39%
Alibaba
$60 Обс.
34%
MiniMax
$50 Обс.
23%
DeepSeek
$50 Обс.
22%
Mistral
$64 Обс.
21%
Meituan
$50 Обс.
20%
OpenAI
$50 Обс.
19%
Tencent
$50 Обс.
19%
Moonshot
$66 Обс.
18%
$86 Обс.
14%
Amazon
$64 Обс.
12%
Xiaomi
$66 Обс.
10%
SpaceXAI
$64 Обс.
10%
Meta
$66 Обс.
10%
Microsoft
$64 Обс.
9%
Baidu
$64 Обс.
9%
Nvidia
$66 Обс.
8%
StepFun
$72 Обс.
9%
Thinky
$103 Обс.
4%
ByteDance
$77 Обс.
9%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic leads trader sentiment at 59% implied probability for the best AI model by end of November, driven by Claude Fable 5.1's September 1 release topping independent benchmarks such as BenchAlign v5 at 84.7 and strong SWE-bench coding results ahead of OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra. Recent frontier releases from OpenAI, Google, and others have narrowed gaps on context windows and agentic tasks, yet Anthropic's consistent leadership in verifiable evaluations like Terminal-Bench sustains its edge. With probabilities clustered near 50% for many contenders, traders weigh rapid iteration cycles, pricing shifts, and potential regulatory scrutiny on advanced capabilities as key swing factors before November resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Ринок відкрито: Sep 17, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
Обсяг
$1,359Дата завершення
Dec 1, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 17, 2026, 8:09 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic leads trader sentiment at 59% implied probability for the best AI model by end of November, driven by Claude Fable 5.1's September 1 release topping independent benchmarks such as BenchAlign v5 at 84.7 and strong SWE-bench coding results ahead of OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra. Recent frontier releases from OpenAI, Google, and others have narrowed gaps on context windows and agentic tasks, yet Anthropic's consistent leadership in verifiable evaluations like Terminal-Bench sustains its edge. With probabilities clustered near 50% for many contenders, traders weigh rapid iteration cycles, pricing shifts, and potential regulatory scrutiny on advanced capabilities as key swing factors before November resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Обсяг
$1,359Дата завершення
Dec 1, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 17, 2026, 8:09 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic leads trader sentiment at 59% implied probability for the best AI model by end of November, driven by Claude Fable 5.1's September 1 release topping independent benchmarks such as BenchAlign v5 at 84.7 and strong SWE-bench coding results ahead of OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra. Recent frontier releases from OpenAI, Google, and others have narrowed gaps on context windows and agentic tasks, yet Anthropic's consistent leadership in verifiable evaluations like Terminal-Bench sustains its edge. With probabilities clustered near 50% for many contenders, traders weigh rapid iteration cycles, pricing shifts, and potential regulatory scrutiny on advanced capabilities as key swing factors before November resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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