Recent numerical weather model runs show notable spread in minimum temperature guidance for Chongqing on August 26, with ensemble members split between scenarios supporting a daily low near or below 22°C versus sustained warmth keeping the minimum at or above 32°C. This bifurcation stems primarily from uncertainty in overnight radiative cooling under varying cloud cover, humidity levels near 70-80%, and potential for localized convective rainfall tied to the East Asian monsoon trough. Chongqing’s basin topography and urban heat island typically suppress nighttime drops, favoring the warmer tail, while any increase in low-level moisture or precipitation could enhance cooling and shift odds toward the cooler outcome. Upcoming high-resolution model updates from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration will likely narrow this spread ahead of market resolution.