**Recent typhoon activity and heavy monsoon-driven rainfall are suppressing peak temperatures in Guangzhou ahead of August 26, 2026.** Multiple forecast models, including those aligned with China Meteorological Administration guidance, indicate a high probability of widespread showers and thunderstorms on the 26th, limiting daytime heating. Expected highs cluster in the 30–33 °C range (roughly 86–91 °F), well below the late-August climatological average high of ~33 °C and far from the all-time record of 36.1 °C. Persistent rain and cloud cover associated with Typhoon Narra and the southwest monsoon have already cooled recent days (Aug 23 highs near 32–34 °C), and similar conditions are projected to continue, reducing insolation and evaporative cooling effects. This setup favors the lower temperature resolution bands in the market. Traders are closely watching updated model runs and official CMA briefings for any late shifts in storm tracks or rainfall intensity that could allow brief clearing and higher readings. Historical analogs show that strong tropical systems in the South China Sea frequently cap Guangzhou highs in the low 30s during late August.