Mary Peltola’s strong fundraising edge and name recognition from her prior statewide wins have narrowed the gap with incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan in Alaska’s 2026 Senate race, keeping implied probabilities nearly even at 51.5 percent for Peltola and 48.5 percent for Sullivan. The August 18 top-four primary, which advances candidates to a November ranked-choice general election, adds uncertainty as multiple minor candidates split the field. Recent polls showing Peltola narrowly ahead reflect her momentum since entering the race in January, while Sullivan benefits from incumbency and the state’s underlying partisan tilt. Trader consensus remains tight because small shifts in primary turnout or late endorsements could alter general-election matchups under ranked-choice voting.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоAlaska Senate Election Winner
Mary Peltola 52%
Dan Sullivan 49%
Dustin Darden <1%
Ann Diener <1%
$393,681 Обс.
$393,681 Обс.

Mary Peltola
52%

Dan Sullivan
49%

Dustin Darden
<1%

Ann Diener
<1%

Richard Grayson
<1%
Mary Peltola 52%
Dan Sullivan 49%
Dustin Darden <1%
Ann Diener <1%
$393,681 Обс.
$393,681 Обс.

Mary Peltola
52%

Dan Sullivan
49%

Dustin Darden
<1%

Ann Diener
<1%

Richard Grayson
<1%
If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
Ринок відкрито: Oct 13, 2025, 4:41 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Mary Peltola’s strong fundraising edge and name recognition from her prior statewide wins have narrowed the gap with incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan in Alaska’s 2026 Senate race, keeping implied probabilities nearly even at 51.5 percent for Peltola and 48.5 percent for Sullivan. The August 18 top-four primary, which advances candidates to a November ranked-choice general election, adds uncertainty as multiple minor candidates split the field. Recent polls showing Peltola narrowly ahead reflect her momentum since entering the race in January, while Sullivan benefits from incumbency and the state’s underlying partisan tilt. Trader consensus remains tight because small shifts in primary turnout or late endorsements could alter general-election matchups under ranked-choice voting.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено



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