Louisiana’s 3rd congressional district uses an open jungle primary on November 3, 2026, in which all candidates appear on one ballot and an outright win requires more than 50 percent. Incumbent Republican Clay Higgins faces Democratic challengers John Day, Tia LeBrun, and Caleb Walker following the postponement of earlier primaries after the Supreme Court’s ruling on congressional maps and the subsequent shift to the November date with a possible December 12 runoff. The district’s strong Republican lean and Higgins’s prior 70-plus percent performances create a clear frontrunner, yet the field of candidates fragments the vote enough that traders assign an 85 percent probability no one reaches the outright threshold. Recent candidate qualifying and the compressed timeline before Election Day reinforce expectations of a competitive first round that falls short of a majority.