The 10-year Treasury yield, recently trading near 4.73% as of mid-August 2026, reflects persistent inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target alongside elevated term premiums from large fiscal deficits and heavy Treasury supply. Sticky core CPI readings and resilient labor market data have shifted market-implied odds toward fewer or delayed rate cuts through year-end, with some participants now pricing in potential hikes. Longer-term yields also incorporate rising concerns over supply shocks and debt sustainability, pushing far-forward rates higher than earlier projections. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming FOMC communications, August CPI and employment releases, and ongoing Treasury auction volumes, all of which could influence whether yields test levels above 5% before 2027.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоНасколько высокой будет доходность 10-летних казначейских облигаций до 2027 года?
Насколько высокой будет доходность 10-летних казначейских облигаций до 2027 года?
$286,324 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
4,8%
69%
5,0%
35%
5,2%
5%
5,5%
7%
5,7%
6%
6,0%
6%
$286,324 Объем
4,8%
$59,319 Объем
69%
5,0%
$81,291 Объем
35%
5,2%
$26,278 Объем
5%
5,5%
$5,832 Объем
7%
5,7%
$4,234 Объем
6%
6,0%
$3,084 Объем
6%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between December 9, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).The 10-year Treasury yield, recently trading near 4.73% as of mid-August 2026, reflects persistent inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target alongside elevated term premiums from large fiscal deficits and heavy Treasury supply. Sticky core CPI readings and resilient labor market data have shifted market-implied odds toward fewer or delayed rate cuts through year-end, with some participants now pricing in potential hikes. Longer-term yields also incorporate rising concerns over supply shocks and debt sustainability, pushing far-forward rates higher than earlier projections. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming FOMC communications, August CPI and employment releases, and ongoing Treasury auction volumes, all of which could influence whether yields test levels above 5% before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
Открытие рынка: Nov 12, 2025, 5:48 PM ET
Объем
$286,324Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 12, 2025, 5:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between December 9, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).The 10-year Treasury yield, recently trading near 4.73% as of mid-August 2026, reflects persistent inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target alongside elevated term premiums from large fiscal deficits and heavy Treasury supply. Sticky core CPI readings and resilient labor market data have shifted market-implied odds toward fewer or delayed rate cuts through year-end, with some participants now pricing in potential hikes. Longer-term yields also incorporate rising concerns over supply shocks and debt sustainability, pushing far-forward rates higher than earlier projections. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming FOMC communications, August CPI and employment releases, and ongoing Treasury auction volumes, all of which could influence whether yields test levels above 5% before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
Объем
$286,324Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 12, 2025, 5:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 10-year Treasury yield, recently trading near 4.73% as of mid-August 2026, reflects persistent inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target alongside elevated term premiums from large fiscal deficits and heavy Treasury supply. Sticky core CPI readings and resilient labor market data have shifted market-implied odds toward fewer or delayed rate cuts through year-end, with some participants now pricing in potential hikes. Longer-term yields also incorporate rising concerns over supply shocks and debt sustainability, pushing far-forward rates higher than earlier projections. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming FOMC communications, August CPI and employment releases, and ongoing Treasury auction volumes, all of which could influence whether yields test levels above 5% before 2027.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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