Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, combined with a resilient labor market, has driven trader sentiment toward paths that include at least one hike among the July–October 2026 FOMC meetings. The July 29 decision held the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% on a 9–3 vote, but the subsequent August jobs report (162,000 gains, unemployment steady at 4.1%) lifted implied probabilities of a September tightening to roughly 40–60% in futures markets. Elevated energy prices and mixed inflation signals have kept “Other” sequences—those involving hikes or varied outcomes—at 64% implied probability, well ahead of the 33% on three consecutive pauses. The September 15–16 meeting and next week’s CPI release remain the key near-term catalysts shaping these market-implied odds.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоOther 64%
Pause–Pause–Pause 33%
Pause–Pause–Cut 1.4%
Pause–Cut–Pause <1%
$746,948 Объем
$746,948 Объем
28 окт. 2026 г.
Pause–Pause–Pause
33%
Pause–Pause–Cut
1%
Pause–Cut–Pause
<1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
<1%
Other
64%
Other 64%
Pause–Pause–Pause 33%
Pause–Pause–Cut 1.4%
Pause–Cut–Pause <1%
$746,948 Объем
$746,948 Объем
28 окт. 2026 г.
Pause–Pause–Pause
$250,146 Объем
33%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$62,450 Объем
1%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$43,175 Объем
<1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$28,302 Объем
<1%
Other
$319,386 Объем
64%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPersistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, combined with a resilient labor market, has driven trader sentiment toward paths that include at least one hike among the July–October 2026 FOMC meetings. The July 29 decision held the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% on a 9–3 vote, but the subsequent August jobs report (162,000 gains, unemployment steady at 4.1%) lifted implied probabilities of a September tightening to roughly 40–60% in futures markets. Elevated energy prices and mixed inflation signals have kept “Other” sequences—those involving hikes or varied outcomes—at 64% implied probability, well ahead of the 33% on three consecutive pauses. The September 15–16 meeting and next week’s CPI release remain the key near-term catalysts shaping these market-implied odds.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Открытие рынка: Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ET
Объем
$746,948Дата окончания
28 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPersistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, combined with a resilient labor market, has driven trader sentiment toward paths that include at least one hike among the July–October 2026 FOMC meetings. The July 29 decision held the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% on a 9–3 vote, but the subsequent August jobs report (162,000 gains, unemployment steady at 4.1%) lifted implied probabilities of a September tightening to roughly 40–60% in futures markets. Elevated energy prices and mixed inflation signals have kept “Other” sequences—those involving hikes or varied outcomes—at 64% implied probability, well ahead of the 33% on three consecutive pauses. The September 15–16 meeting and next week’s CPI release remain the key near-term catalysts shaping these market-implied odds.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Объем
$746,948Дата окончания
28 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, combined with a resilient labor market, has driven trader sentiment toward paths that include at least one hike among the July–October 2026 FOMC meetings. The July 29 decision held the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% on a 9–3 vote, but the subsequent August jobs report (162,000 gains, unemployment steady at 4.1%) lifted implied probabilities of a September tightening to roughly 40–60% in futures markets. Elevated energy prices and mixed inflation signals have kept “Other” sequences—those involving hikes or varied outcomes—at 64% implied probability, well ahead of the 33% on three consecutive pauses. The September 15–16 meeting and next week’s CPI release remain the key near-term catalysts shaping these market-implied odds.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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