Persistent inflation readings, including the August 2026 CPI rising 3.4% year-over-year with core at 2.4%, combined with a strong labor market, have shifted trader consensus toward tighter policy for the December FOMC meeting. Banks such as UBS, Goldman Sachs, and J.P. Morgan now project a 25-basis-point hike in both September and December, aligning with the 60.5% market-implied probability for a December increase to the 3.50–3.75% target range. Hawkish signals from Chair Kevin Warsh and recent data have elevated the odds of further tightening beyond the current 3.625% midpoint, though uncertainty around the September dot plot and any subsequent inflation moderation could still support a hold at 35.5%. The December 8–9 meeting remains the key resolution point.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено25 bps increase 61%
Без изменений 36%
25 bps decrease 4.1%
50+ bps increase 1.5%
$822,144 Объем
$822,144 Объем
9 дек. 2026 г.
50+ bps decrease
1%
25 bps decrease
4%
Без изменений
36%
25 bps increase
61%
50+ bps increase
2%
25 bps increase 61%
Без изменений 36%
25 bps decrease 4.1%
50+ bps increase 1.5%
$822,144 Объем
$822,144 Объем
9 дек. 2026 г.
50+ bps decrease
$131,229 Объем
1%
25 bps decrease
$189,249 Объем
4%
Без изменений
$162,968 Объем
36%
25 bps increase
$214,365 Объем
61%
50+ bps increase
$124,333 Объем
2%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Persistent inflation readings, including the August 2026 CPI rising 3.4% year-over-year with core at 2.4%, combined with a strong labor market, have shifted trader consensus toward tighter policy for the December FOMC meeting. Banks such as UBS, Goldman Sachs, and J.P. Morgan now project a 25-basis-point hike in both September and December, aligning with the 60.5% market-implied probability for a December increase to the 3.50–3.75% target range. Hawkish signals from Chair Kevin Warsh and recent data have elevated the odds of further tightening beyond the current 3.625% midpoint, though uncertainty around the September dot plot and any subsequent inflation moderation could still support a hold at 35.5%. The December 8–9 meeting remains the key resolution point.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Открытие рынка: Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ET
Объем
$822,144Дата окончания
9 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Persistent inflation readings, including the August 2026 CPI rising 3.4% year-over-year with core at 2.4%, combined with a strong labor market, have shifted trader consensus toward tighter policy for the December FOMC meeting. Banks such as UBS, Goldman Sachs, and J.P. Morgan now project a 25-basis-point hike in both September and December, aligning with the 60.5% market-implied probability for a December increase to the 3.50–3.75% target range. Hawkish signals from Chair Kevin Warsh and recent data have elevated the odds of further tightening beyond the current 3.625% midpoint, though uncertainty around the September dot plot and any subsequent inflation moderation could still support a hold at 35.5%. The December 8–9 meeting remains the key resolution point.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Объем
$822,144Дата окончания
9 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Persistent inflation readings, including the August 2026 CPI rising 3.4% year-over-year with core at 2.4%, combined with a strong labor market, have shifted trader consensus toward tighter policy for the December FOMC meeting. Banks such as UBS, Goldman Sachs, and J.P. Morgan now project a 25-basis-point hike in both September and December, aligning with the 60.5% market-implied probability for a December increase to the 3.50–3.75% target range. Hawkish signals from Chair Kevin Warsh and recent data have elevated the odds of further tightening beyond the current 3.625% midpoint, though uncertainty around the September dot plot and any subsequent inflation moderation could still support a hold at 35.5%. The December 8–9 meeting remains the key resolution point.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы