The Justice Department's April 2026 decision to drop its criminal probe into Chair Jerome Powell over his June 2025 Senate testimony on the Federal Reserve's $2.5 billion headquarters renovation removed the primary near-term catalyst for charges. That inquiry, opened in January amid cost-overrun scrutiny and political pressure on monetary policy independence, had prompted subpoenas later blocked by a federal judge. With Powell's term concluding and no active federal investigation or referrals reported since April, trader consensus reflects limited pathways to indictment absent new congressional referrals or executive action. Key upcoming events include any post-term oversight hearings and fiscal-year 2027 budget reviews that could surface related spending questions, though historical precedent shows rare criminal pursuit of sitting or recent Fed chairs on such matters.