Elevated inflation pressures from energy price spikes tied to Middle East tensions, alongside a resilient labor market and solid economic growth, underpin the 60.5% market-implied probability of no change at the January 27-28, 2027 FOMC meeting. The Fed held its 3.50%-3.75% target range unchanged at the July 29 meeting despite three dissents favoring a 25 basis point hike, with minutes indicating expectations of stability into early 2027 before any potential easing. Fed funds futures price a modest rise toward 4.0%-4.1% by mid-2027, reflecting trader caution on inflation trajectory versus official projections of gradual moderation toward 2%. Key upcoming catalysts include September and December 2026 meetings plus CPI and employment data releases that could shift the balance toward the 24% odds of a 25 basis point increase.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоNo change 61%
Повышение на 25 базисных пунктов 24%
25 bps decrease 15%
Повышение на 50+ б.п. 3.9%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
27 янв. 2027 г.
50+ bps decrease
3%
25 bps decrease
15%
No change
61%
Повышение на 25 базисных пунктов
24%
Повышение на 50+ б.п.
4%
No change 61%
Повышение на 25 базисных пунктов 24%
25 bps decrease 15%
Повышение на 50+ б.п. 3.9%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
27 янв. 2027 г.
50+ bps decrease
$361 Объем
3%
25 bps decrease
$225 Объем
15%
No change
$1,475 Объем
61%
Повышение на 25 базисных пунктов
$366 Объем
24%
Повышение на 50+ б.п.
$225 Объем
4%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Elevated inflation pressures from energy price spikes tied to Middle East tensions, alongside a resilient labor market and solid economic growth, underpin the 60.5% market-implied probability of no change at the January 27-28, 2027 FOMC meeting. The Fed held its 3.50%-3.75% target range unchanged at the July 29 meeting despite three dissents favoring a 25 basis point hike, with minutes indicating expectations of stability into early 2027 before any potential easing. Fed funds futures price a modest rise toward 4.0%-4.1% by mid-2027, reflecting trader caution on inflation trajectory versus official projections of gradual moderation toward 2%. Key upcoming catalysts include September and December 2026 meetings plus CPI and employment data releases that could shift the balance toward the 24% odds of a 25 basis point increase.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Открытие рынка: Jul 29, 2026, 8:39 PM ET
Объем
$2,652Дата окончания
27 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 29, 2026, 8:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Elevated inflation pressures from energy price spikes tied to Middle East tensions, alongside a resilient labor market and solid economic growth, underpin the 60.5% market-implied probability of no change at the January 27-28, 2027 FOMC meeting. The Fed held its 3.50%-3.75% target range unchanged at the July 29 meeting despite three dissents favoring a 25 basis point hike, with minutes indicating expectations of stability into early 2027 before any potential easing. Fed funds futures price a modest rise toward 4.0%-4.1% by mid-2027, reflecting trader caution on inflation trajectory versus official projections of gradual moderation toward 2%. Key upcoming catalysts include September and December 2026 meetings plus CPI and employment data releases that could shift the balance toward the 24% odds of a 25 basis point increase.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Объем
$2,652Дата окончания
27 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 29, 2026, 8:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elevated inflation pressures from energy price spikes tied to Middle East tensions, alongside a resilient labor market and solid economic growth, underpin the 60.5% market-implied probability of no change at the January 27-28, 2027 FOMC meeting. The Fed held its 3.50%-3.75% target range unchanged at the July 29 meeting despite three dissents favoring a 25 basis point hike, with minutes indicating expectations of stability into early 2027 before any potential easing. Fed funds futures price a modest rise toward 4.0%-4.1% by mid-2027, reflecting trader caution on inflation trajectory versus official projections of gradual moderation toward 2%. Key upcoming catalysts include September and December 2026 meetings plus CPI and employment data releases that could shift the balance toward the 24% odds of a 25 basis point increase.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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