Strong labor market data and sticky inflation above the Fed’s 2% target are anchoring trader sentiment for the October FOMC decision, with market-implied odds favoring no change at the current 3.50-3.75% fed funds range. August nonfarm payrolls rose 162,000—well above consensus—while the unemployment rate held at 4.1%, reinforcing resilience that has prompted officials including Chair Kevin Warsh to emphasize returning inflation to target. July CPI printed 3.4% year-over-year (core 2.5%), and the August reading due September 11 will heavily influence the September 15-16 meeting, where futures have priced a roughly even chance of a 25-basis-point hike. This data-driven hawkish tilt, coupled with limited forward guidance, keeps modest tightening probabilities elevated into October while capping larger moves, as traders weigh the balance between growth momentum and any further disinflation progress.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоРешение ФРС в октябре?
Решение ФРС в октябре?
Без изменений 68%
Повышение на 25 б.п. 28%
Снижение на 25 б.п. 4.0%
Повышение на 50+ б.п. <1%
$1,263,184 Объем
$1,263,184 Объем
28 окт. 2026 г.
Снижение на 50+ б.п.
1%
Снижение на 25 б.п.
4%
Без изменений
68%
Повышение на 25 б.п.
28%
Повышение на 50+ б.п.
1%
Без изменений 68%
Повышение на 25 б.п. 28%
Снижение на 25 б.п. 4.0%
Повышение на 50+ б.п. <1%
$1,263,184 Объем
$1,263,184 Объем
28 окт. 2026 г.
Снижение на 50+ б.п.
$206,544 Объем
1%
Снижение на 25 б.п.
$478,349 Объем
4%
Без изменений
$213,757 Объем
68%
Повышение на 25 б.п.
$216,493 Объем
28%
Повышение на 50+ б.п.
$148,040 Объем
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Strong labor market data and sticky inflation above the Fed’s 2% target are anchoring trader sentiment for the October FOMC decision, with market-implied odds favoring no change at the current 3.50-3.75% fed funds range. August nonfarm payrolls rose 162,000—well above consensus—while the unemployment rate held at 4.1%, reinforcing resilience that has prompted officials including Chair Kevin Warsh to emphasize returning inflation to target. July CPI printed 3.4% year-over-year (core 2.5%), and the August reading due September 11 will heavily influence the September 15-16 meeting, where futures have priced a roughly even chance of a 25-basis-point hike. This data-driven hawkish tilt, coupled with limited forward guidance, keeps modest tightening probabilities elevated into October while capping larger moves, as traders weigh the balance between growth momentum and any further disinflation progress.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Открытие рынка: Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ET
Объем
$1,263,184Дата окончания
28 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Strong labor market data and sticky inflation above the Fed’s 2% target are anchoring trader sentiment for the October FOMC decision, with market-implied odds favoring no change at the current 3.50-3.75% fed funds range. August nonfarm payrolls rose 162,000—well above consensus—while the unemployment rate held at 4.1%, reinforcing resilience that has prompted officials including Chair Kevin Warsh to emphasize returning inflation to target. July CPI printed 3.4% year-over-year (core 2.5%), and the August reading due September 11 will heavily influence the September 15-16 meeting, where futures have priced a roughly even chance of a 25-basis-point hike. This data-driven hawkish tilt, coupled with limited forward guidance, keeps modest tightening probabilities elevated into October while capping larger moves, as traders weigh the balance between growth momentum and any further disinflation progress.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Объем
$1,263,184Дата окончания
28 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Strong labor market data and sticky inflation above the Fed’s 2% target are anchoring trader sentiment for the October FOMC decision, with market-implied odds favoring no change at the current 3.50-3.75% fed funds range. August nonfarm payrolls rose 162,000—well above consensus—while the unemployment rate held at 4.1%, reinforcing resilience that has prompted officials including Chair Kevin Warsh to emphasize returning inflation to target. July CPI printed 3.4% year-over-year (core 2.5%), and the August reading due September 11 will heavily influence the September 15-16 meeting, where futures have priced a roughly even chance of a 25-basis-point hike. This data-driven hawkish tilt, coupled with limited forward guidance, keeps modest tightening probabilities elevated into October while capping larger moves, as traders weigh the balance between growth momentum and any further disinflation progress.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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