Trader sentiment for Federal Reserve rate hikes in 2026 centers on one 25 basis point increase at a 42.5% implied probability, driven by recent inflation data showing continued moderation toward the 2% target alongside resilient but non-accelerating labor market conditions. FOMC communications and the latest dot plot have reinforced expectations of a measured policy path, with the 29% odds on zero hikes reflecting forecasts of stable growth without renewed price pressures. The 23% probability assigned to two hikes incorporates risks from potential upside surprises in upcoming CPI or employment reports. Markets are pricing in the Fed funds rate trajectory against Treasury yields and historical base rates, with the next major catalysts including September 2026 economic releases that could shift consensus on the pace of any additional tightening.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоHow many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
1 (25 bps) 43%
0 (0 bps) 29%
2 (50 bps) 23%
3 (75 б.п.) 4.9%
$287,566 Объем
$287,566 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
0 (0 bps)
29%
1 (25 bps)
43%
2 (50 bps)
23%
3 (75 б.п.)
5%
4 (100 bps)
1%
5+ (125+ bps)
1%
1 (25 bps) 43%
0 (0 bps) 29%
2 (50 bps) 23%
3 (75 б.п.) 4.9%
$287,566 Объем
$287,566 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
0 (0 bps)
$101,669 Объем
29%
1 (25 bps)
$47,179 Объем
43%
2 (50 bps)
$68,691 Объем
23%
3 (75 б.п.)
$31,570 Объем
5%
4 (100 bps)
$20,984 Объем
1%
5+ (125+ bps)
$17,474 Объем
1%
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Trader sentiment for Federal Reserve rate hikes in 2026 centers on one 25 basis point increase at a 42.5% implied probability, driven by recent inflation data showing continued moderation toward the 2% target alongside resilient but non-accelerating labor market conditions. FOMC communications and the latest dot plot have reinforced expectations of a measured policy path, with the 29% odds on zero hikes reflecting forecasts of stable growth without renewed price pressures. The 23% probability assigned to two hikes incorporates risks from potential upside surprises in upcoming CPI or employment reports. Markets are pricing in the Fed funds rate trajectory against Treasury yields and historical base rates, with the next major catalysts including September 2026 economic releases that could shift consensus on the pace of any additional tightening.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Открытие рынка: Jun 23, 2026, 3:39 PM ET
Объем
$287,566Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jun 23, 2026, 3:39 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Trader sentiment for Federal Reserve rate hikes in 2026 centers on one 25 basis point increase at a 42.5% implied probability, driven by recent inflation data showing continued moderation toward the 2% target alongside resilient but non-accelerating labor market conditions. FOMC communications and the latest dot plot have reinforced expectations of a measured policy path, with the 29% odds on zero hikes reflecting forecasts of stable growth without renewed price pressures. The 23% probability assigned to two hikes incorporates risks from potential upside surprises in upcoming CPI or employment reports. Markets are pricing in the Fed funds rate trajectory against Treasury yields and historical base rates, with the next major catalysts including September 2026 economic releases that could shift consensus on the pace of any additional tightening.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Объем
$287,566Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jun 23, 2026, 3:39 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment for Federal Reserve rate hikes in 2026 centers on one 25 basis point increase at a 42.5% implied probability, driven by recent inflation data showing continued moderation toward the 2% target alongside resilient but non-accelerating labor market conditions. FOMC communications and the latest dot plot have reinforced expectations of a measured policy path, with the 29% odds on zero hikes reflecting forecasts of stable growth without renewed price pressures. The 23% probability assigned to two hikes incorporates risks from potential upside surprises in upcoming CPI or employment reports. Markets are pricing in the Fed funds rate trajectory against Treasury yields and historical base rates, with the next major catalysts including September 2026 economic releases that could shift consensus on the pace of any additional tightening.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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