Recent mixed U.S. economic data and a divided FOMC outlook underpin the near-even odds on whether the Federal Reserve will deliver at least one rate hike in 2026. July CPI showed headline inflation at 3.4% year-over-year with core easing to 2.5%, while a weaker jobs report has tempered near-term hike expectations and pushed CME FedWatch probabilities for a September move below 40%. The June dot plot revealed a 3.8% median year-end 2026 funds rate projection—implying one hike—with nine participants favoring increases above the current 3.5–3.75% range and eight seeing no change. Persistent above-target inflation, elevated oil prices from geopolitical tensions, and Chair Warsh’s reduced forward guidance create upward pressure, yet softening labor conditions and recent data revisions keep the path contested ahead of the September FOMC meeting and upcoming CPI releases.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
49% вероятность
$7,597,059 Объем
$7,597,059 Объем
9 дек. 2026 г.
Да
49% вероятность
$7,597,059 Объем
$7,597,059 Объем
9 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent mixed U.S. economic data and a divided FOMC outlook underpin the near-even odds on whether the Federal Reserve will deliver at least one rate hike in 2026. July CPI showed headline inflation at 3.4% year-over-year with core easing to 2.5%, while a weaker jobs report has tempered near-term hike expectations and pushed CME FedWatch probabilities for a September move below 40%. The June dot plot revealed a 3.8% median year-end 2026 funds rate projection—implying one hike—with nine participants favoring increases above the current 3.5–3.75% range and eight seeing no change. Persistent above-target inflation, elevated oil prices from geopolitical tensions, and Chair Warsh’s reduced forward guidance create upward pressure, yet softening labor conditions and recent data revisions keep the path contested ahead of the September FOMC meeting and upcoming CPI releases.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
Объем
$7,597,059Дата окончания
9 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent mixed U.S. economic data and a divided FOMC outlook underpin the near-even odds on whether the Federal Reserve will deliver at least one rate hike in 2026. July CPI showed headline inflation at 3.4% year-over-year with core easing to 2.5%, while a weaker jobs report has tempered near-term hike expectations and pushed CME FedWatch probabilities for a September move below 40%. The June dot plot revealed a 3.8% median year-end 2026 funds rate projection—implying one hike—with nine participants favoring increases above the current 3.5–3.75% range and eight seeing no change. Persistent above-target inflation, elevated oil prices from geopolitical tensions, and Chair Warsh’s reduced forward guidance create upward pressure, yet softening labor conditions and recent data revisions keep the path contested ahead of the September FOMC meeting and upcoming CPI releases.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$7,597,059Дата окончания
9 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent mixed U.S. economic data and a divided FOMC outlook underpin the near-even odds on whether the Federal Reserve will deliver at least one rate hike in 2026. July CPI showed headline inflation at 3.4% year-over-year with core easing to 2.5%, while a weaker jobs report has tempered near-term hike expectations and pushed CME FedWatch probabilities for a September move below 40%. The June dot plot revealed a 3.8% median year-end 2026 funds rate projection—implying one hike—with nine participants favoring increases above the current 3.5–3.75% range and eight seeing no change. Persistent above-target inflation, elevated oil prices from geopolitical tensions, and Chair Warsh’s reduced forward guidance create upward pressure, yet softening labor conditions and recent data revisions keep the path contested ahead of the September FOMC meeting and upcoming CPI releases.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы