**Trader consensus on Polymarket centers on the federal funds rate ending 2026 near its current 3.50–3.75% target range, with 3.75% and 4.0% as the clear leading outcomes.** This reflects the June 2026 FOMC Summary of Economic Projections, where the median participant projected a midpoint of 3.8% for year-end 2026—implying one 25-basis-point hike from current levels—with substantial dispersion around that path. **Primary drivers include sticky inflation readings above the Fed’s 2% target, supported by elevated energy prices linked to the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict, alongside a still-resilient labor market and economic growth.** Recent data showing some cooling in CPI and softer employment figures have tempered expectations for aggressive tightening, while futures markets price only modest further increases through late 2026 before stabilization near 4%. Economist surveys largely anticipate a hold through year-end, consistent with the market-implied distribution favoring outcomes clustered between 3.5% and 4.25%. **Geopolitical oil-price pressures and incoming inflation and employment releases remain the key near-term catalysts that could shift probabilities within this narrow band.**
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено3,75% 40.3%
4,0% 30.4%
4,25% 13.9%
3,5% 8.9%
$6,763,806 Объем
$6,763,806 Объем
8 дек. 2026 г.
≤1,0%
1%
1,25
1%
1,5%
<1%
1,75%
<1%
2,0%
<1%
2,25%
<1%
2,5%
1%
2,75%
1%
3,0%
1%
3,25%
2%
3,5%
9%
3,75%
40%
4,0%
30%
4,25%
14%
≥ 4,5%
5%
3,75% 40.3%
4,0% 30.4%
4,25% 13.9%
3,5% 8.9%
$6,763,806 Объем
$6,763,806 Объем
8 дек. 2026 г.
≤1,0%
$246,132 Объем
1%
1,25
$142,981 Объем
1%
1,5%
$146,382 Объем
<1%
1,75%
$148,207 Объем
<1%
2,0%
$263,549 Объем
<1%
2,25%
$87,683 Объем
<1%
2,5%
$172,965 Объем
1%
2,75%
$61,131 Объем
1%
3,0%
$488,831 Объем
1%
3,25%
$66,074 Объем
2%
3,5%
$202,486 Объем
9%
3,75%
$531,856 Объем
40%
4,0%
$1,369,355 Объем
30%
4,25%
$428,209 Объем
14%
≥ 4,5%
$2,407,967 Объем
5%
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).**Trader consensus on Polymarket centers on the federal funds rate ending 2026 near its current 3.50–3.75% target range, with 3.75% and 4.0% as the clear leading outcomes.** This reflects the June 2026 FOMC Summary of Economic Projections, where the median participant projected a midpoint of 3.8% for year-end 2026—implying one 25-basis-point hike from current levels—with substantial dispersion around that path.
**Primary drivers include sticky inflation readings above the Fed’s 2% target, supported by elevated energy prices linked to the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict, alongside a still-resilient labor market and economic growth.** Recent data showing some cooling in CPI and softer employment figures have tempered expectations for aggressive tightening, while futures markets price only modest further increases through late 2026 before stabilization near 4%. Economist surveys largely anticipate a hold through year-end, consistent with the market-implied distribution favoring outcomes clustered between 3.5% and 4.25%.
**Geopolitical oil-price pressures and incoming inflation and employment releases remain the key near-term catalysts that could shift probabilities within this narrow band.**
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
Открытие рынка: Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ET
Объем
$6,763,806Дата окончания
9 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).**Trader consensus on Polymarket centers on the federal funds rate ending 2026 near its current 3.50–3.75% target range, with 3.75% and 4.0% as the clear leading outcomes.** This reflects the June 2026 FOMC Summary of Economic Projections, where the median participant projected a midpoint of 3.8% for year-end 2026—implying one 25-basis-point hike from current levels—with substantial dispersion around that path.
**Primary drivers include sticky inflation readings above the Fed’s 2% target, supported by elevated energy prices linked to the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict, alongside a still-resilient labor market and economic growth.** Recent data showing some cooling in CPI and softer employment figures have tempered expectations for aggressive tightening, while futures markets price only modest further increases through late 2026 before stabilization near 4%. Economist surveys largely anticipate a hold through year-end, consistent with the market-implied distribution favoring outcomes clustered between 3.5% and 4.25%.
**Geopolitical oil-price pressures and incoming inflation and employment releases remain the key near-term catalysts that could shift probabilities within this narrow band.**
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
Объем
$6,763,806Дата окончания
9 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Trader consensus on Polymarket centers on the federal funds rate ending 2026 near its current 3.50–3.75% target range, with 3.75% and 4.0% as the clear leading outcomes.** This reflects the June 2026 FOMC Summary of Economic Projections, where the median participant projected a midpoint of 3.8% for year-end 2026—implying one 25-basis-point hike from current levels—with substantial dispersion around that path. **Primary drivers include sticky inflation readings above the Fed’s 2% target, supported by elevated energy prices linked to the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict, alongside a still-resilient labor market and economic growth.** Recent data showing some cooling in CPI and softer employment figures have tempered expectations for aggressive tightening, while futures markets price only modest further increases through late 2026 before stabilization near 4%. Economist surveys largely anticipate a hold through year-end, consistent with the market-implied distribution favoring outcomes clustered between 3.5% and 4.25%. **Geopolitical oil-price pressures and incoming inflation and employment releases remain the key near-term catalysts that could shift probabilities within this narrow band.**
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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