The Bank of Korea’s August 27 decision to deliver a second consecutive 25 basis point hike, lifting the policy rate to 3.00%, has anchored trader expectations for a measured approach at the October meeting. Stronger-than-expected 2026 GDP growth, now projected at 3.3% on semiconductor-driven exports and domestic demand recovery, alongside elevated core inflation at 2.6% in July and a revised 2.5% forecast, supported the tightening. The updated dot plot, with a 3.25% median for the next six months, and Governor Shin’s emphasis on data-dependent, “live” meetings signal a gradual pace. This leaves room for assessment of August–September inflation prints and household debt trends before October, aligning with the 75.5% implied probability of no change versus a 21.5% chance of another 25 bps hike.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоБез изменений 74%
Повышение на 25 б.п. 22%
Повышение на 50+ б.п. 4.4%
Снижение на 25 б.п. 4.0%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
21 окт. 2026 г.
Снижение на 50+ б.п.
<1%
Снижение на 25 б.п.
4%
Без изменений
74%
Повышение на 25 б.п.
22%
Повышение на 50+ б.п.
4%
Без изменений 74%
Повышение на 25 б.п. 22%
Повышение на 50+ б.п. 4.4%
Снижение на 25 б.п. 4.0%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
21 окт. 2026 г.
Снижение на 50+ б.п.
$128 Объем
<1%
Снижение на 25 б.п.
$278 Объем
4%
Без изменений
$5,373 Объем
74%
Повышение на 25 б.п.
$1,224 Объем
22%
Повышение на 50+ б.п.
$219 Объем
4%
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the base rate resulting from the October 2026 meeting of the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board, including the statement or release from its October 2026 meeting, scheduled for October 22, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Korea calendar (https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/bbs/E0000627/view.do?nttId=10094301&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400022&depth=400022&pageUnit=10&pageIndex=1&programType=newsDataEng&menuNo=400022&oldMenuNo=400022). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board resulting from its October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.The Bank of Korea’s August 27 decision to deliver a second consecutive 25 basis point hike, lifting the policy rate to 3.00%, has anchored trader expectations for a measured approach at the October meeting. Stronger-than-expected 2026 GDP growth, now projected at 3.3% on semiconductor-driven exports and domestic demand recovery, alongside elevated core inflation at 2.6% in July and a revised 2.5% forecast, supported the tightening. The updated dot plot, with a 3.25% median for the next six months, and Governor Shin’s emphasis on data-dependent, “live” meetings signal a gradual pace. This leaves room for assessment of August–September inflation prints and household debt trends before October, aligning with the 75.5% implied probability of no change versus a 21.5% chance of another 25 bps hike.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the base rate resulting from the October 2026 meeting of the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board, including the statement or release from its October 2026 meeting, scheduled for October 22, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Korea calendar (https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/bbs/E0000627/view.do?nttId=10094301&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400022&depth=400022&pageUnit=10&pageIndex=1&programType=newsDataEng&menuNo=400022&oldMenuNo=400022). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board resulting from its October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board, including the statement or release from its October 2026 meeting, scheduled for October 22, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Korea calendar (https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/bbs/E0000627/view.do?nttId=10094301&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400022&depth=400022&pageUnit=10&pageIndex=1&programType=newsDataEng&menuNo=400022&oldMenuNo=400022). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board resulting from its October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
Открытие рынка: Aug 27, 2026, 7:06 PM ET
Объем
$7,222Дата окончания
22 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 27, 2026, 7:06 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the base rate resulting from the October 2026 meeting of the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board, including the statement or release from its October 2026 meeting, scheduled for October 22, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Korea calendar (https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/bbs/E0000627/view.do?nttId=10094301&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400022&depth=400022&pageUnit=10&pageIndex=1&programType=newsDataEng&menuNo=400022&oldMenuNo=400022). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board resulting from its October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.The Bank of Korea’s August 27 decision to deliver a second consecutive 25 basis point hike, lifting the policy rate to 3.00%, has anchored trader expectations for a measured approach at the October meeting. Stronger-than-expected 2026 GDP growth, now projected at 3.3% on semiconductor-driven exports and domestic demand recovery, alongside elevated core inflation at 2.6% in July and a revised 2.5% forecast, supported the tightening. The updated dot plot, with a 3.25% median for the next six months, and Governor Shin’s emphasis on data-dependent, “live” meetings signal a gradual pace. This leaves room for assessment of August–September inflation prints and household debt trends before October, aligning with the 75.5% implied probability of no change versus a 21.5% chance of another 25 bps hike.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the base rate resulting from the October 2026 meeting of the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board, including the statement or release from its October 2026 meeting, scheduled for October 22, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Korea calendar (https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/bbs/E0000627/view.do?nttId=10094301&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400022&depth=400022&pageUnit=10&pageIndex=1&programType=newsDataEng&menuNo=400022&oldMenuNo=400022). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board resulting from its October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board, including the statement or release from its October 2026 meeting, scheduled for October 22, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Korea calendar (https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/bbs/E0000627/view.do?nttId=10094301&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400022&depth=400022&pageUnit=10&pageIndex=1&programType=newsDataEng&menuNo=400022&oldMenuNo=400022). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board resulting from its October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
Объем
$7,222Дата окончания
22 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 27, 2026, 7:06 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...The Bank of Korea’s August 27 decision to deliver a second consecutive 25 basis point hike, lifting the policy rate to 3.00%, has anchored trader expectations for a measured approach at the October meeting. Stronger-than-expected 2026 GDP growth, now projected at 3.3% on semiconductor-driven exports and domestic demand recovery, alongside elevated core inflation at 2.6% in July and a revised 2.5% forecast, supported the tightening. The updated dot plot, with a 3.25% median for the next six months, and Governor Shin’s emphasis on data-dependent, “live” meetings signal a gradual pace. This leaves room for assessment of August–September inflation prints and household debt trends before October, aligning with the 75.5% implied probability of no change versus a 21.5% chance of another 25 bps hike.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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