Bipartisan congressional incentives and established procedural tools, including repeated debt ceiling increases and Treasury extraordinary measures, underpin the 97.5% trader consensus against a US default by 2027. Lawmakers have consistently resolved fiscal impasses through continuing resolutions and appropriations bills to prevent disruptions to debt service and broader markets. Strong economic fundamentals and Federal Reserve policy flexibility further reduce near-term risks. Realistic scenarios that could still shift probabilities include extended post-election gridlock, a sudden surge in interest costs from sustained deficits, or unforeseen legal challenges to Treasury operations, though historical patterns show rapid resolution even in divided government.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДефолты США по долгам к 2027 году?
Дефолты США по долгам к 2027 году?
Да
3% вероятность
$16,315 Объем
$16,315 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
3% вероятность
$16,315 Объем
$16,315 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.Bipartisan congressional incentives and established procedural tools, including repeated debt ceiling increases and Treasury extraordinary measures, underpin the 97.5% trader consensus against a US default by 2027. Lawmakers have consistently resolved fiscal impasses through continuing resolutions and appropriations bills to prevent disruptions to debt service and broader markets. Strong economic fundamentals and Federal Reserve policy flexibility further reduce near-term risks. Realistic scenarios that could still shift probabilities include extended post-election gridlock, a sudden surge in interest costs from sustained deficits, or unforeseen legal challenges to Treasury operations, though historical patterns show rapid resolution even in divided government.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
Открытие рынка: Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ET
Объем
$16,315Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.Bipartisan congressional incentives and established procedural tools, including repeated debt ceiling increases and Treasury extraordinary measures, underpin the 97.5% trader consensus against a US default by 2027. Lawmakers have consistently resolved fiscal impasses through continuing resolutions and appropriations bills to prevent disruptions to debt service and broader markets. Strong economic fundamentals and Federal Reserve policy flexibility further reduce near-term risks. Realistic scenarios that could still shift probabilities include extended post-election gridlock, a sudden surge in interest costs from sustained deficits, or unforeseen legal challenges to Treasury operations, though historical patterns show rapid resolution even in divided government.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
Объем
$16,315Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Bipartisan congressional incentives and established procedural tools, including repeated debt ceiling increases and Treasury extraordinary measures, underpin the 97.5% trader consensus against a US default by 2027. Lawmakers have consistently resolved fiscal impasses through continuing resolutions and appropriations bills to prevent disruptions to debt service and broader markets. Strong economic fundamentals and Federal Reserve policy flexibility further reduce near-term risks. Realistic scenarios that could still shift probabilities include extended post-election gridlock, a sudden surge in interest costs from sustained deficits, or unforeseen legal challenges to Treasury operations, though historical patterns show rapid resolution even in divided government.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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